357 Badger Ln · Winter Haven, FL 33844

$76,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Manufactured public records · 339 Days on market

Built 1981 4,861 sqft lot $297/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW PRICE! 2-bedroom 2-bath home is ready for new owners and priced to sell! Open living/dining room combo with new laminate flooring. Eat-in kitchen has lots of storage space with newer stove and refrigerator. Appliances stay including the washer and dryer. Partially furnished. New AC 2021, New ceilings, trusses, and roof in 2023. New hot water heater 2025. Share included in the purchase price currently valued at $60k. Community has planned activities, clubhouse, gated entrance and is located on Lake Hamilton, a 2200-acre lake. So, bring your boat and fishing poles! Shed in carport area and screened room on the side. Quick closing available. Make this your get away property or live here ye

Key facts

• Newer stove
• New ceilings
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• OPEN LIVING DINING ROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• NEWER STOVE
• NEWER REFRIGERATOR
• NEW AC
• NEW CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual fees listed as $3,564; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Community: Lake Region Village Office; Monthly association fee of $297 (includes cable TV, pool, internet, sewer, trash, water); Association amenities: Clubhouse, gated community, pool, recreation facilities; Association approval required; buyer approval required; Senior community; pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Awnings; Sliding doors; Shed(s); Lake access (Lake Hamilton) with private boat ramp; skiing allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Drapes
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 339 days — a 12% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,672 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 339 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.13%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $13,599
• Equity at exit: $11,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $38,318
• Equity at exit: $6,649

Cash invested: $21,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,562 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$403
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $609/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$297
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $991

Max offer price $76,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $494	-5% $473	+0% $451	+5% $429	+10% $407
Rent	-10% $328	-5% $389	+0% $451	+5% $513	+10% $574
Rate	-1.0pp $490	-0.5pp $471	base $451	+0.5pp $431	+1.0pp $411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,225
• Closing costs: $2,307
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $297 · $3,564/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,900 Active 339 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,900 Active 338 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,900 Active 337 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,900 Active 336 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,900 Active 334 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $76,900 Active 331 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,900 Active 330 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,900 Active 329 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $76,900 Active 328 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $76,900 Active 325 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,900 Active 323 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,900 Active 322 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,900 Active 321 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    price $76,900
15. 2026-02-01
    price $78,900
16. 2025-08-18
    price $79,900
17. 2025-07-14
    listed $69,900 Active
18. 2024-01-29
    historical
19. 2024-01-08
    price $129,900
20. 2023-12-02
    listed $134,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $609 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $638 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$30/yr (+$2/mo · 4.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,308
• − Property taxes: −$609
• − Insurance: −$384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,500
• − Management: −$1,500
• − HOA: −$3,564
• − Depreciation: −$2,237
• Taxable income: $4,643
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,114
• After-tax cash flow: $4,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-43.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $76,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $78,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-08 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-02 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $609 · +29.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.