760 Hanley Downs Dr · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$270,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,781 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2004 6,534 sqft lot Est $337k · 20% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This family friendly home in Cantonmet is sure to please with all it has to offer. Once entering the home you will notice the open floor plan with eat-in kitchen and formal dining area as well. The breakfast bar overlooks the great room and dining area giving a very open and inviting feel to the home. Flooring throughout the dining room, great room, and foyer has been upgraded to pergot in the past year. The home has a fourth bedroom off of the master bedroom that would make an excellent nursery or office as well. After entering the master bath you will notice the home boasts a garden tub, seperate shower, and double vanity. The exterior of the home continues to please with covered patio and fenced yard as well. Schedule your appointment to see this home today as you will not be let down.

Key facts

• Hvac system replaced
• Storage shed
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• SCREENED PORCH
• NEWLY FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• ROOF REPLACED
• HVAC SYSTEM REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $200 (includes association services)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two covered parking spaces (front entrance access)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers and copper wiring
• Home design: One-story brick home; Entry on front (front entrance)
• Construction: Shingle gable roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Back yard fencing; Yard building (outbuilding); Interior lot; Paved, county-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: New kitchen appliances installed during current ownership; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; All bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; New toilets installed around 2022
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Updated bathrooms; Updated kitchen; Living/dining combo; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater (appliance listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($894/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Meadow Elementary School (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 710 students, 51% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 511 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $270k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,821 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,609
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2470 Bentley Oaks Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,750 (-2%)	1mo	$335,000	$191	71
1632 Slate Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-4%)	1mo	$322,900	$189	63
1932 Appleton Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,838 (+3%)	2mo	$370,000	$201	62
2781 Avalon St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-4%)	1mo	$322,900	$189	60
1628 Slate Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-4%)	5mo	$322,900	$189	60
2323 Tall Oak Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-13%)	3mo	$244,000	$158	60
2328 Badger Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (-9%)	3mo	$325,000	$200	58
2733 Avalon St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,690 (-5%)	1mo	$315,102	$186	58
2637 Avalon St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-9%)	4mo	$290,000	$179	56
255 W Kingsfield Rd	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,948 (+9%)	3mo	$371,000	$190	55
2884 Avalon St	0.42mi	4/2.0	2,030 (+14%)	4mo	$315,000	$155	49
1640 Quartz Ave	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,028 (+14%)	2mo	$383,000	$189	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-39,070
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-28,166
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,969/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,164

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $151	+0% $74	+5% $-2	+10% $-78
Rent	-10% $-104	-5% $-15	+0% $74	+5% $164	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $210	-0.5pp $143	base $74	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2310 Tall Oak Dr Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.0	2241	$2,195	$0.98	25d	1	0.18mi
717 Brambling Ct Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,875	$1.15	25d	1	0.24mi
3203 Mountain Laurel Trl Cantonment, FL	4.0	3.0	2030	$2,600	$1.28	15d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $270,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $270,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,969 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$272/yr (+$23/mo · 13.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,969
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$3,739
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$897
• After-tax cash flow: $1,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+83.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $270,000 PARMLS
• 2018-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-29 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2016-03-28 Listed $165,000 PARMLS
• 2009-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $159,900 Public Records
• 2009-04-24 Sold (MLS) $159,900 PARMLS
• 2008-03-16 Listed $155,000 PARMLS
• 2006-11-15 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2006-08-29 Listed $179,000 PARMLS
• 2004-10-08 Listed $147,225 PARMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,969 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.