Is 211 Desert Willow Dr in Royse City, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 6.7% cap rate and $83/mo modeled cash flow at a $257,450 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 211 Desert Willow Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 6.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,410/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D+ Composite 48.87

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +15.1/30.0
ARV discount +10.2/15.0
Schools +4.7/10.0
DSCR +4.6/10.0
1% rule +4.4/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.8/5.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$257,450

211 Desert Willow Dr · Royse City, TX 75189

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · SingleFamily · 137 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,750 sqft lot 2-car garage $143/sqft · 6% below area Est $274k · 6% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

New! Spacious Single story! Four bedrooms, two full baths, with open floor plan and covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Are you looking for a new home in Royse City? Wildwood is now selling! This Express Series community offers 2 to 4 bedroom floorplans ranging in size from 1,022 to 2,276 square feet, providing options to best fit your lifestyle! Wildwood is located within the small, but growing town of Royse City, which offers ample amounts of shopping, dining, and entertainment, all while providing locals the benefits of small-town living.

Key facts

Open floor plan
Led lighting
Island kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $257k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($997/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (6.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $227k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Royse City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Harry Herndon El (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 536 students, 49% FRL); Ouida Baley Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 934 students, 43% FRL); Royse City H S (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,526 students, 37% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1884 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,810 units permitted in Rockwall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Rockwall County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,556 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.94% ✗
Cap rate: 6.68%
Cash-on-cash: 1.38%
DSCR: 1.06
GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $273,944
List price: $257,450
Delta: -6.02%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
543 Bluejack Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,801 (0%)	7mo	$265,490	$147	82
223 Desert Willow Way	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,615 (-10%)	6mo	$250,990	$155	78
216 Whispering Pine Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+13%)	1mo	$288,990	$142	73
311 Desert Willow Way	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,615 (-10%)	6mo	$260,990	$162	71
248 Whispering Pine Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+13%)	4mo	$313,990	$154	68
320 Whispering Pine Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-13%)	0mo	$264,990	$169	66
336 Whispering Pine Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-13%)	1mo	$264,990	$169	64
303 Whispering Pine Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+13%)	4mo	$311,990	$153	64
619 Bluejack Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,615 (-10%)	9mo	$273,990	$170	64
219 Desert Willow Way	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+13%)	4mo	$291,185	$143	62
539 Bluejack Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+13%)	6mo	$274,490	$135	58
555 Bluejack Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,533 (-15%)	2mo	$264,980	$173	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -17.6%
Equity multiple: 0.40×
Total profit: $-43,429
Equity at exit: $38,387

10-year hold

IRR: -16.9%
Equity multiple: 0.19×
Total profit: $-58,052
Equity at exit: $22,260

Cash invested: $72,086 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 38 active · 14 under contract
Months of supply: 19.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $270,950 ($160/sqft)
Median days on market: 150 d
This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -5.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75189

Home prices YoY: -25.0%
Rents YoY: -1.1%
Active inventory: 1884
Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,410 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,350
Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,862/yr
Insurance: −$107
HOA: −$42
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,305

Max offer price $257,450

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $172	+0% $83	+5% $-6	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-12	+0% $83	+5% $178	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $149	base $83	+0.5pp $16	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $64,362
Closing costs: $7,724
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Vitex Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2285	$2,150	$0.94	0d	1	0.18mi
149 Boxwood Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,099	$1.15	9d	1	0.18mi
149 Boxwood Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,099	$1.15	37d	1	0.18mi
347 Boxwood Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1632	$1,995	$1.22	51d	1	0.27mi
403 Vitex Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,926	$1.38	41d	1	0.32mi
444 Vitex Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2080	$1,999	$0.96	18d	1	0.37mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Energy-efficient features including enhanced attic insulation, HVAC, insulation, efficient lighting, programmable thermostat, and efficient windows
HOA & community: Mandatory association with semi-annual fee (semi-annual fee includes full use of facilities)

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 19' wide x 20' deep, 10' height)2 covered parking spaces
Security: Smoke detector(s)Carbon monoxide detector(s)
Utilities: City waterCity sewerLocated in a Municipal Utility District
Home design: Single family residenceOne storyNew construction (completed in 2026)Not attached to another property
Construction: Composition roofSlab foundationNew construction completed
Exterior features: Wood fencingLess than 0.5 acre lot

Interior

Kitchen: Natural stone/granite countertopsKitchen islandBreakfast barBuilt-in cabinetsPantryWater line to refrigerator
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with ensuite bath and walk-in closetThree additional bedrooms on level 1 (split bedroom layout for two of them)
Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileLaminate
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: Open floorplanEat-in kitchenKitchen islandGranite countersPantryDecorative lightingCable TV availableHigh speed internet available
Laundry & utility: Disposal

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $257,450 Active 137 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $257,450 Active 136 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $257,450 Active 135 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $257,450 Active 133 DOM
2026-09-18

pricedays on market $257,450 Active 132 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $255,450 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $255,450 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $255,450 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $255,450 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $255,450 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $255,450 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on market $255,450 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $271,420 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $271,420 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $271,420 Active 116 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $271,420 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $271,420 Active 112 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $271,420 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $271,420 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $271,420 Active 108 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $271,420 Active 107 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $271,420 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $271,420 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $271,420 Active 104 DOM
2026-08-20

pricedays on market $271,420 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $281,420 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $281,420 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $281,420 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $281,420 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $281,420 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $281,420 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $281,420 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $281,420 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $281,420 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $281,420 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $281,420 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $281,420 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $281,420 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $281,420 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $281,420 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $281,420 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $281,420 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $281,420 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $281,420 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $281,420 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $281,420 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $281,420 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $281,420 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $281,420 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $281,420 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,925
− Mortgage interest: −$14,421
− Property taxes: −$3,862
− Insurance: −$1,287
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,314
− Management: −$2,314
− HOA: −$504
− Depreciation: −$7,489
Taxable loss: −$3,266

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$784
After-tax cash flow: $1,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Royse City is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and property value. ↑
Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Install smart thermostat — Energy-efficient systems can lower utility costs and attract eco-conscious buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harry Herndon El D- TX #1,080/4,322 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 High Royse City H S D- TX #621/1,632 Nat'l #6,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Royse City ISD
NCES district ID: 4838220
Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $73,810
Composite: 38.44/100
National rank: #4197
State rank: #266 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Royse City

Score: 75/100
State rank: #158
US rank: #4292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Rockwall County · 118,396 people
City population: 48,739
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 48,739
Household income: $117,125
Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

Population outlook (Rockwall County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 118,396 people
By 2030: 132,209 · +11.7%
By 2040: 159,538 · +34.7%
By 2050: 185,299 · +56.5%
By 2075: 243,489 · +105.7%
By 2100: 277,814 · +134.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockwall

2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.1% · R 70.0%
2008→2024 swing: +5.3pp toward D · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -40.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
Current HPI: 212.8422
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2026-06-06 Price Changed $278,420 NTREIS
2026-06-03 Price Changed $238,420 NTREIS
2026-06-02 Relisted — NTREIS
2026-05-18 Pending — NTREIS
2026-05-11 Price Changed $278,420 NTREIS
2026-04-24 Listed $276,420 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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