8416 NW 39th Cir · Gainesville, FL 32653

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1977 3,920 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New roof!! Fresh paint!! Updated flooring!! Come and live in this friendly 55+ community. You want to take advantage of this great community full of activities, creek, tennis, clubhouse and tennis court. Just outside of the hustle and bustles of the city with close proximity to local shopping, farmer’s market, and a short commute to downtown.

Key facts

• Shuffleboard courts
• Clubhouse
• Tennis courts

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• HEATED POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS
• WALKING TRAILS
• MEETING ROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoned PD
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Turkey Creek HOA (association approval required); Monthly HOA approximately $42.58 (annual fee $511); Senior community; Pets allowed; Development: Turkey Creek Forest

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Storage; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.03%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $12,695
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $52,387
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32653

• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $453/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $573	-5% $539	+0% $505	+5% $471	+10% $437
Rent	-10% $379	-5% $442	+0% $505	+5% $568	+10% $631
Rate	-1.0pp $565	-0.5pp $535	base $505	+0.5pp $474	+1.0pp $442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8479 NW 38th Dr Gainesville, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	21d	1	0.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-27
   listed $120,000 Active
3. 2022-01-03
   soldstatus $96,000
4. 2022-01-02
   soldstatus $96,000 Closed 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   New roof!! Fresh paint!! Updated flooring!! Come and live in this friendly 55+ community. You want to take advantage of this great community full of activities, creek, tennis, clubhouse and tennis court. Just outside of the hustle and bustles of the city with close proximity to local shopping, farmer’s market, and a short commute to downtown.

5. 2021-09-22
   status Pending 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   New roof!! Fresh paint!! Updated flooring!! Come and live in this friendly 55+ community. You want to take advantage of this great community full of activities, creek, tennis, clubhouse and tennis court. Just outside of the hustle and bustles of the city with close proximity to local shopping, farmer’s market, and a short commute to downtown.

6. 2021-08-18
   listed $101,000 Active 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   New roof!! Fresh paint!! Updated flooring!! Come and live in this friendly 55+ community. You want to take advantage of this great community full of activities, creek, tennis, clubhouse and tennis court. Just outside of the hustle and bustles of the city with close proximity to local shopping, farmer’s market, and a short commute to downtown.

7. 2021-07-13
   historical
8. 2021-05-12
   listed $101,000
9. 2007-12-03
   soldstatus $69,000
10. 2003-08-01
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $453 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$543/yr (+$45/mo · 119.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$453
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,358
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,046
• After-tax cash flow: $5,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• City population: 188,348
• Population (ZIP): 15,457

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.00%
• Current HPI: 247.4137
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+166.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-27 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-02 Sold (MLS) $96,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-18 Listed $101,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-12 Listed $101,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $453 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.