5286 S Ponderosa Dr · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$839,999

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,573 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2014 0.39 ac lot Est $1054k · 20% under $135/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience elevated living in one of Gilbert's most sought-after communities, The Bridges. Situated on an oversized lot with no neighbors behind, this expansive residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, and privacy. Boasting 5 spacious bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, a dedicated den, versatile loft, and a 3-car garage, there is room for every lifestyle and every occasion. The thoughtfully designed floor plan provides generous living spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to a backyard with mature fruit trees, dedicated gardening area and endless possibilities to enjoy the peace and openness that comes with this premium homesite. Located just moments from top-rated

Key facts

• Premium homesite
• Dedicated den
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• NO NEIGHBORS BEHIND
• DEDICATED DEN
• VERSATILE LOFT
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES
• PREMIUM HOMESITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: Conventional
• HOA & community: Homeowner association with quarterly fee; Association fee includes grounds maintenance; Community features include a lake and biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered parking spaces; 4 open parking spaces; 3-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Built with stucco and wood frame (painted); Tile roof
• Exterior features: Private pool with variable speed pump; Private spa; Sprinklers front and rear; Gravel/stone front and back; Block and wrought iron fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Walk-in pantry; Non-laminate counters; Reverse osmosis; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 7 possible bedrooms; Upstairs bedroom(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Granite counters; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Kitchen island; Separate shower and tub; Dual pane windows; Multi-zone climate control
• Laundry & utility: Upstairs laundry; Washer/Dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $840k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $575k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $461k (45.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $461k (45.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Higley Unified School District (4248) (suburban): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #21 of 249 in AZ (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bridges Elementary School (math 80% / reading 79%, grade A, #13 of 1,109 statewide, top 1%, 759 students, 7% FRL); Sossaman Middle School (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #4 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 1,043 students, 13% FRL); Higley High School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #46 of 381 statewide, top 12%, 2,137 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($156k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $76k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$122k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($827k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $460,742 (45.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.64%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,054,035
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5124 S Ponderosa Dr	0.22mi	5/3.5	3,501 (-2%)	1mo	$970,000	$277	80
3767 E Mia Ln	0.25mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,499 (-2%)	0mo	$1,145,000	$327	74
5085 S Ponderosa Dr	0.27mi	5/3.5	3,501 (-2%)	8mo	$1,175,000	$336	71
5012 S Girard St	0.43mi	5/4.0	3,456 (-3%)	1mo	$739,500	$214	69
5123 S Mariposa Dr	0.20mi	5/3.5	3,925 (+10%)	7mo	$860,000	$219	62
3683 E Cassia Ln	0.43mi	5/3.5	3,774 (+6%)	7mo	$1,274,000	$338	59
3811 E Lodgepole Dr	0.36mi	5/3.5	3,186 (-11%)	1mo	$840,000	$264	58
4868 S Hemet St	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,465 (-3%)	3mo	$1,250,000	$361	55
3249 E Nightingale Ln	0.55mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,392 (-5%)	2mo	$1,000,000	$295	53
5547 S Tatum Ct	0.39mi	5/3.5	4,036 (+13%)	3mo	$885,000	$219	51
3964 E Penedes Dr	0.64mi	5/5.5	4,039 (+13%)	0mo	$2,040,000	$505	46
5283 S Joshua Tree Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,054 (-14%)	5mo	$885,000	$290	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $276,070
• Equity at exit: $659,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.77×
• Total profit: $885,789
• Equity at exit: $1,328,554

Cash invested: $235,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,607 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,405
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,967/yr
• Insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$968
• Net cashflow: $-1,497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,503

Max offer price $575,469

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,022	-5% $-1,260	+0% $-1,497	+5% $-1,735	+10% $-1,973
Rent	-10% $-1,861	-5% $-1,679	+0% $-1,497	+5% $-1,315	+10% $-1,133
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,074	-0.5pp $-1,284	base $-1,497	+0.5pp $-1,715	+1.0pp $-1,937

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $210,000
• Closing costs: $25,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3355 E Indigo St Gilbert, AZ	6.0	5.0	4036	$6,900	$1.71	4d	1	0.33mi
3484 E Coconino Way Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2928	$3,400	$1.16	16d	1	0.74mi
4091 E Carriage Way Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2667	$3,420	$1.28	3d	1	0.95mi
3436 E Casa Mader Dr Gilbert, AZ	6.0	4.5	4120	$3,900	$0.95	45d	1	1.08mi
5475 S Cardinal St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2708	$4,000	$1.48	3d	1	1.31mi
3440 E Flower St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2943	$2,800	$0.95	26d	1	1.35mi
2543 E Penedes Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2496	$2,695	$1.08	45d	1	1.40mi
3570 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2536	$3,200	$1.26	4d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $839,999 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $839,999 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $839,999 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $839,999 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $839,999 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $839,999 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $839,999 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $839,999 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $839,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,967 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,544 · $462/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,577/yr (+$215/mo · 86.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,053
• − Property taxes: −$2,967
• − Insurance: −$4,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,423
• − Management: −$4,423
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$24,436
• Taxable loss: −$33,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,120
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Higley Unified School District (4248)
• NCES district ID: 0403780
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $82,526
• Composite: 51.7/100
• National rank: #1688
• State rank: #21 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $839,999 ARMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,967 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.