8809 Number Four Rd · Lowville, NY 13367

$89,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 609 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1960 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This camp is wood framed and sided. Currently considered seasonal because it's only source of heat is wood. A 16' x 16' screened porch helps you enjoy the area during the bug season. The steel roof quickly sheds snow on the warmer days of winter. Electricity, a drilled well with submersible pump, septic and bath (shower stall) are all bonuses compared to many seasonal camps in this area. Surrounded by friendly folks from near and far, who also appreciate the solitude, simple life and wilderness. If you like to camp, hike, canoe, kayak, snowshoe, ice fish, hunt etc. you will find it here.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Large screen porch
• Wood stove

Tags

• NEARBY ACCESS TO ATV TRAILS
• LARGE SCREEN PORCH
• NEW KITCHEN
• WOOD STOVE
• PRIVATE BEDROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.40 acres (100 x 175); Partially wooded, gently sloping lot; Rural, rectangular lot with town road frontage; Current/possible use: Recreational; Finished lot(s)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Well water; Septic tank; Phone available
• Home design: Single-story property; Frame construction; Metal roof
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as a single-story
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Patio; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; Wall furnace; Has heating
• Interior features: Furnished; Crawl space basement; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($621/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $80k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.5% in Lowville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#490 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, schools A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Beaver River Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #458 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $90k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $80,171 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.47%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $52,244
• Equity at exit: $80,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.01×
• Total profit: $151,236
• Equity at exit: $174,656

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13367

• Home prices YoY: 20.2%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $802 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $736

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $77	+0% $52	+5% $26	+10% $1
Rent	-10% $-12	-5% $20	+0% $52	+5% $83	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $75	base $52	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 695-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $89,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,196 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$323/yr (+$27/mo · 37.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$770
• − Management: −$770
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable loss: −$892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$214
• After-tax cash flow: $835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaver River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604200
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,542
• Composite: 38.67/100
• National rank: #4147
• State rank: #458 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lowville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #490
• US rank: #8619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment C Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,786

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,126 people
• By 2030: 25,354 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 23,359 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 20,927 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 15,533 · -40.5%
• By 2100: 10,215 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+8.7 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.81%
• Current HPI: 296.4815
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+172.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $89,900 CNYIS
• 2015-03-24 Sold (MLS) $30,000 CNYIS
• 2014-12-17 Listed $33,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $873 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.