438 Cherry St · Abilene, TX 79602

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 732 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1938 0.32 ac lot $190/sqft · 59% above area Est $123k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two rent houses on 0.32 acres. 438 Cherry is a 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 732-sqft home on a 0.14 ac lot; 446 Cherry is 1 bedroom, 1 bath, 288-sqft home on a 0.18 on the corner of S 8th and Cherry. Both tracts are zoned LI Light Industrial. 438 Cherry leases for $700 per mo with the tenant paying all bills. 446 Cherry leases for $450 per mo with tenant paying all bills. Ideal for redevelopment either for commercial or residential use.

Key facts

• 0.32 acres
• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1938

Tags

• 0.32 ACRES
• ZONED LI LIGHT INDUSTRIAL
• CORNER OF S 8TH AND CHERRY
• IDEAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.64%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,816
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 13.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
866 Sycamore St	0.52mi	2/1.0	840 (+15%)	4mo	$119,000	$142	48
925 Poplar St	0.70mi	2/1.0	672 (-8%)	9mo	$31,200	$46	46
1041 Poplar St	0.75mi	1/1.0 (-1)	688 (-6%)	11mo	$92,900	$135	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $9,790
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $77,149
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $929/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,094

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
726 Chestnut St Unit D Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	500	$1,680	$3.36	44d	1	0.37mi
918 Pecan St Unit B Abilene, TX	1.0	1.0	372	$900	$2.42	13d	1	0.39mi
1601 S 14th St Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	660	$1,200	$1.82	44d	1	1.12mi
1841 S 14th St Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	21d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    price $139,000 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Two rent houses on 0.32 acres. 438 Cherry is a 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 732-sqft home on a 0.14 ac lot; 446 Cherry is 1 bedroom, 1 bath, 288-sqft home on a 0.18 on the corner of S 8th and Cherry. Both tracts are zoned LI Light Industrial. 438 Cherry leases for $700 per mo with the tenant paying all bills. 446 Cherry leases for $450 per mo with tenant paying all bills. Ideal for redevelopment either for commercial or residential use.

18. 2026-04-12
    listed $150,000 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Two rent houses on 0.32 acres. 438 Cherry is a 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 732-sqft home on a 0.14 ac lot; 446 Cherry is 1 bedroom, 1 bath, 288-sqft home on a 0.18 on the corner of S 8th and Cherry. Both tracts are zoned LI Light Industrial. 438 Cherry leases for $700 per mo with the tenant paying all bills. 446 Cherry leases for $450 per mo with tenant paying all bills. Ideal for redevelopment either for commercial or residential use.

19. 2025-03-05
    historical $700
20. 2025-02-21
    listed $700
21. 2025-02-21
    historical $700
22. 2025-02-20
    listed $700
23. 2010-02-25
    soldstatus
24. 2006-10-25
    soldstatus 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    NICE REMODELED HOME, OPEN FLOOR PLAN, FRESH PAINT, NEW CARPET, UPDATED PLUMBING AND ELECTRIC. OWNER WILL INSTALL CH/A AT FULL PRICE.

25. 2006-10-02
    soldstatus
26. 2006-09-19
    historical 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    NICE REMODELED HOME, OPEN FLOOR PLAN, FRESH PAINT, NEW CARPET, UPDATED PLUMBING AND ELECTRIC. OWNER WILL INSTALL CH/A AT FULL PRICE.

27. 2006-06-16
    listed $32,500 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    NICE REMODELED HOME, OPEN FLOOR PLAN, FRESH PAINT, NEW CARPET, UPDATED PLUMBING AND ELECTRIC. OWNER WILL INSTALL CH/A AT FULL PRICE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $929 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,614/yr (+$135/mo · 173.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$929
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,509
• − Management: −$1,509
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $2,390
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$574
• After-tax cash flow: $3,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+327.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-05 Rental Removed $700 NTREIS
• 2025-02-21 Listed for Rent $700 NTREIS
• 2025-02-21 Rental Removed $700 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-20 Listed for Rent $700 APPFOLIO
• 2010-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-25 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-09-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-06-16 Listed $32,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $929 · -16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.