2949 Highway 188 · Crystal Springs, AR 71953

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 2015 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

This home sits on just under an acre and a half and is less than one mile to Little Fir boat ramp on beautiful Lake Ouachita! 2015 Mobile home with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This property gives you plenty of room to park your boat and all your toys, perfect location to enjoy Lake Ouachita and have a place to call home. Would be great as a weekender or a full time residence. Home is selling furnished!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2015
• Listed 56 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured (modular) home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric central heating
• Interior features: Electric range; Laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-852/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.1% in Crystal Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mount Ida School District (rural): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #79 of 238 in AR (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,399 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-16,201
• Equity at exit: $32,531

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,654
• Equity at exit: $33,115

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71953

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $129,631

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $139,900 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active Under Contract 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active Under Contract 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active Under Contract 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active Under Contract 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,900 Active Under Contract 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active Under Contract 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active Under Contract 42 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $139,900 Active
16. 2025-09-14
    historical
17. 2025-03-13
    listed $205,000 New Listing
18. 2025-01-06
    historical
19. 2024-08-28
    price $299,000
20. 2024-07-30
    listed $447,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,089
• − Management: −$1,089
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$3,274
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$786
• After-tax cash flow: $-66/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home on a wooded lot needs moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. The property is located near Lake Ouachita, making it a great location for a weekend retreat or full-time residence.

Repairs flagged

• Major Siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major Flooring — Worn-out and in need of replacement
• Moderate Windows — Old window frames

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replacing the flooring — Improves living space and rental appeal
• Both Updating the windows — Enhances energy efficiency and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Siding · Weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn-out and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Old window frames	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$33,000–115,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replacing the flooring — Improves living space and rental appeal ↑
• Both Updating the windows — Enhances energy efficiency and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Ida School District
• NCES district ID: 0509990
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,629
• Composite: 32.53/100
• National rank: #5698
• State rank: #79 of 238 in AR

Livability — Crystal Springs

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,412

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,889 people
• By 2030: 7,283 · -7.7%
• By 2040: 6,086 · -22.9%
• By 2050: 5,005 · -36.6%
• By 2075: 3,310 · -58.0%
• By 2100: 2,271 · -71.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.2) · D 17.4% · R 80.6% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.1pp · 2024: -63.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.2 2020: R+59.8 2016: R+53.4 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+35.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.18%
• Current HPI: 278.2854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-68.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Contingent — HSBOR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $139,900 HSBOR
• 2025-09-14 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $205,000 CARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $299,000 CARMLS
• 2024-07-30 Listed $447,000 CARMLS