4307 Monarch St · Amarillo, TX 79118

$306,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,750 sqft lot $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 26-2739 - Built by Bluehaven Homes - Ready Now! ~ OWN FOR LESS! Take advantage of up to $10K in closing concessions! Experience modern luxury in this stunning new construction home. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a 2-car garage, this layout perfectly blends style and function. The heart of the home is a chef-inspired kitchen with granite countertops and custom cabinetry, flowing seamlessly into an open-concept living area. Enjoy the outdoors on your covered back patio. This high-performance home includes spray foam insulation, full sod, and irrigation for lasting comfort and efficiency. Discover the perfect balance of elegance and warmth in a space you'll be proud to call home. Photos for reference only.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Covered back patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• SPRAY FOAM INSULATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $306k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $248,233 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-53,071
• Equity at exit: $45,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-31,021
• Equity at exit: $26,457

Cash invested: $85,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79118

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,482 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,605
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,590/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,681

Max offer price $283,332

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,500
• Closing costs: $9,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4400 Sunset St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,125	$1.52	44d	1	0.08mi
10602 Stone Meadow Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,200	$1.40	44d	1	0.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $306,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $306,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $306,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $306,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $306,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $306,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $306,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $306,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $306,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-04-02
    listed $306,000 Active 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    MLS# 26-2739 - Built by Bluehaven Homes - Ready Now! ~ OWN FOR LESS! Take advantage of up to $10K in closing concessions! Experience modern luxury in this stunning new construction home. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a 2-car garage, this layout perfectly blends style and function. The heart of the home is a chef-inspired kitchen with granite countertops and custom cabinetry, flowing seamlessly into an open-concept living area. Enjoy the outdoors on your covered back patio. This high-performance home includes spray foam insulation, full sod, and irrigation for lasting comfort and efficiency. Discover the perfect balance of elegance and warmth in a space you'll be proud to call home. Photos for reference only.

11. 2026-01-14
    listed $306,000 Active 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    OWN FOR LESS! Take advantage of up to $10K in closing concessions! Experience modern luxury in this stunning new construction home. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a 2-car garage, this layout perfectly blends style and function. The heart of the home is a chef-inspired kitchen with granite countertops and custom cabinetry, flowing seamlessly into an open-concept living area. Enjoy the outdoors on your covered back patio. This high-performance home includes spray foam insulation, full sod, and irrigation for lasting comfort and efficiency. Discover the perfect balance of elegance and warmth in a space you'll be proud to call home. Photos for reference only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,141
• − Property taxes: −$4,590
• − Insurance: −$1,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,383
• − Management: −$2,383
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$8,902
• Taxable loss: −$7,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,722
• After-tax cash flow: $-157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, a well-maintained exterior, and a solid foundation. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• City population: 185,802
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,107
• Household income: $87,810
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 367.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.59%
• Current HPI: 162.5206
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.52%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $306,000 AARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $306,000 Zillow