7014 Zepher Rd · Fayetteville, NC 28311

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,142 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1980 0.38 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this three-bedroom, one-bathroom single-family residence nestled in Cedar Falls, Fayetteville, NC. The home sits on an expansive 16,553-square-foot lot, offering generous outdoor space for various pursuits. With two garage stalls included, there's ample room for vehicles and storage needs. This residence provides a solid foundation for those seeking a practical home in the Cedar Falls community. * Manufactured House put on Permanant foundation, and its not with the DMV anymore"

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.38 acre; Zoning: SF6
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered carport space; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level; Raised foundation; No shared/common walls
• Construction: Built with stone, vertical siding, vinyl siding, and wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Outdoor barbecue/grill

Interior

• Kitchen: Free‑standing gas range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and propane); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Laminate countertops; Fireplace; Storm door(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup inside; Laundry located inside (in bathroom)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($309/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long Hill Elementary (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #349 of 1,410 statewide, top 25%, 442 students, 99% FRL); Pine Forest Middle (math 38% / reading 49%, grade D, #182 of 475 statewide, top 40%, 738 students, 56% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,247 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,076
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
368 Kitimat Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+13%)	1mo	$100,000	$78	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-26,205
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-21,927
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28311

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,372 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,340

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $122	-5% $74	+0% $26	+5% $-22	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-28	+0% $26	+5% $80	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $69	base $26	+0.5pp $-18	+1.0pp $-63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6230 Abbotts Park Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	792	$1,295	$1.63	15d	13	0.14mi
103 Homeplace Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	23d	1	0.69mi
6707 Water Trail Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	15d	8	0.70mi
118 Girard Ave #118 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	15d	1	0.74mi
130 Girard Ave Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,100	$1.05	25d	1	0.77mi
152 Homeplace Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	901	$999	$1.11	15d	1	0.77mi
154 Homeplace Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	901	$1,025	$1.14	15d	1	0.78mi
5716 5 Sisters Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	15d	1	0.82mi
499 Coronation Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,390	$1.26	25d	1	0.89mi
187 Aloha Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1301	$1,395	$1.07	25d	1	1.07mi
330 Bubble Creek Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,600	$1.14	25d	1	1.32mi
206 Villa Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	988	$1,250	$1.27	25d	1	1.35mi
226 Tallstone Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,339	$1.46	15d	16	1.36mi
342 Bubble Creek Ct #1 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,350	$1.04	15d	1	1.36mi
380 Bubble Creek Ct #8 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,300	$0.88	25d	1	1.37mi
362 Bubble Creek Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1254	$1,250	$1.00	25d	1	1.40mi
5418 Hampton Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	25d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $170,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 491-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $180,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $180,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 407-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    listed $180,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$240/yr (+$20/mo · 20.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,318
• − Management: −$1,318
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$633
• After-tax cash flow: $942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 36,629
• Household income: $62,170
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1645.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.88%
• Current HPI: 203.0731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $180,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,154 · +18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.