4474 Birchwood Dr · Hermantown, MN 55811

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition $103/sqft · 60% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Second owner, beautiful, single wide manufactured home on a bright corner lot in Birchwood Estates! Read to the end to see the large list of improvements. The Seller has added over $40k since they bought it! This three bedroom, two bathroom home is different than all others that have sold recently! The open floor plan allows you the comfort of entertaining, while the split bedroom layout affords you the privacy you've always wanted. Entering from the large front porch, the living room is bright and beautiful and provides plenty of space for a dining table and plenty of comfortable seating. The kitchen has a large island with a breakfast bar, a new single, deep stainless steel sink, and a dishwasher. There is a newer refrigerator and gas stove with a large vent hood, perfect for anyone who enjoys cooking or just looking fancy. There is plenty of cabinet storage for your small appliances and a pantry for food storage. Off of the kitchen is the spacious master bedroom with a private master bath. The bedroom has a forced air heat source, a vinyl single hung window and access to the private master bathroom with a large closet area. The bathroom also has a tub with a shower, vinyl flooring, and vanity and ceiling lights. On the other side of the home are the two other bedrooms, both with nicely sized closets, heat sources, and vinyl windows. The guest bathroom is also on this side of the home and has a tub with a shower, vinyl flooring, and a vanity light and vent fan. The laundry is in the hallway for your convenience, along with the forced air furnace and 200 amp electrical panel. Outside you have a shed for storage and a driveway for off-street parking. The corner lot allows for plenty of space between you and your neighbors, and this is probably the most green space in the neighborhood. The $514 per month lot rent includes water, sewer, and garbage. Recent improvements include the following: New flooring throughout $14k, new central air, new storage shed $6k, New carport, new washing machine and dryer, new covered front porch, new skirting and insulation, new finishing inside and completely repainted, new large and deep kitchen sink and faucet.

Key facts

• Large front porch
• New storage shed
• Large island

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• LARGE ISLAND
• PRIVATE MASTER BATH
• SPACIOUS MASTER BEDROOM
• NEW STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway; Detached or attached 2-car garage (20 x 20)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas service; Electric service by Minnesota Power
• Home design: Residential single-story home; Manufactured home; Entry level: main level; Facing direction: (not provided)
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Construction material: Other; Block foundation (foundation dimensions 16 x 76); Above-grade living area 1,216
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Corner lot with light tree coverage; Storage shed on property; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island; Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Bedroom sizes: 11'5" x 14'8"; 8'2" x 12'3"; 9'5" x 8'5"
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level); Bathroom sizes: 10'10" x 5'5"; 8'5" x 5'
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Accessible interior with 36"+ doors and no internal stairs; Basement with block foundation and crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $790 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 2.1% in Hermantown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#446 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hermantown Public School District (rural): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #73 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $125k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.07%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,329
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 59.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4476 Alderberry Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	4mo	$85,000	$66	84
4957 Evergreen Ln	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	3mo	$60,000	$57	65
5070 Boulder Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	9mo	$92,000	$76	64
5082 Boulder Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	8mo	$94,000	$77	62
5047 Boulder Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	22mo	$108,000	$89	60
5059 Boulder Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	18mo	$80,000	$66	59
5052 Boulder Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	9mo	$145,000	$108	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $33,486
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $108,552
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55811

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $790

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4877 W Arrowhead Rd Unit 124 Hermantown, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,750	$1.47	13d	1	0.88mi
4877 W Arrowhead Rd Hermantown, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,695	$1.42	44d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $125,000 Active 35 DOM

   Show marketing remark (2180 chars)

   Second owner, beautiful, single wide manufactured home on a bright corner lot in Birchwood Estates! Read to the end to see the large list of improvements. The Seller has added over $40k since they bought it! This three bedroom, two bathroom home is different than all others that have sold recently! The open floor plan allows you the comfort of entertaining, while the split bedroom layout affords you the privacy you've always wanted. Entering from the large front porch, the living room is bright and beautiful and provides plenty of space for a dining table and plenty of comfortable seating. The kitchen has a large island with a breakfast bar, a new single, deep stainless steel sink, and a dishwasher. There is a newer refrigerator and gas stove with a large vent hood, perfect for anyone who enjoys cooking or just looking fancy. There is plenty of cabinet storage for your small appliances and a pantry for food storage. Off of the kitchen is the spacious master bedroom with a private master bath. The bedroom has a forced air heat source, a vinyl single hung window and access to the private master bathroom with a large closet area. The bathroom also has a tub with a shower, vinyl flooring, and vanity and ceiling lights. On the other side of the home are the two other bedrooms, both with nicely sized closets, heat sources, and vinyl windows. The guest bathroom is also on this side of the home and has a tub with a shower, vinyl flooring, and a vanity light and vent fan. The laundry is in the hallway for your convenience, along with the forced air furnace and 200 amp electrical panel. Outside you have a shed for storage and a driveway for off-street parking. The corner lot allows for plenty of space between you and your neighbors, and this is probably the most green space in the neighborhood. The $514 per month lot rent includes water, sewer, and garbage. Recent improvements include the following: New flooring throughout $14k, new central air, new storage shed $6k, New carport, new washing machine and dryer, new covered front porch, new skirting and insulation, new finishing inside and completely repainted, new large and deep kitchen sink and faucet.

6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 35 DOM

   Show marketing remark (2180 chars)

   Second owner, beautiful, single wide manufactured home on a bright corner lot in Birchwood Estates! Read to the end to see the large list of improvements. The Seller has added over $40k since they bought it! This three bedroom, two bathroom home is different than all others that have sold recently! The open floor plan allows you the comfort of entertaining, while the split bedroom layout affords you the privacy you've always wanted. Entering from the large front porch, the living room is bright and beautiful and provides plenty of space for a dining table and plenty of comfortable seating. The kitchen has a large island with a breakfast bar, a new single, deep stainless steel sink, and a dishwasher. There is a newer refrigerator and gas stove with a large vent hood, perfect for anyone who enjoys cooking or just looking fancy. There is plenty of cabinet storage for your small appliances and a pantry for food storage. Off of the kitchen is the spacious master bedroom with a private master bath. The bedroom has a forced air heat source, a vinyl single hung window and access to the private master bathroom with a large closet area. The bathroom also has a tub with a shower, vinyl flooring, and vanity and ceiling lights. On the other side of the home are the two other bedrooms, both with nicely sized closets, heat sources, and vinyl windows. The guest bathroom is also on this side of the home and has a tub with a shower, vinyl flooring, and a vanity light and vent fan. The laundry is in the hallway for your convenience, along with the forced air furnace and 200 amp electrical panel. Outside you have a shed for storage and a driveway for off-street parking. The corner lot allows for plenty of space between you and your neighbors, and this is probably the most green space in the neighborhood. The $514 per month lot rent includes water, sewer, and garbage. Recent improvements include the following: New flooring throughout $14k, new central air, new storage shed $6k, New carport, new washing machine and dryer, new covered front porch, new skirting and insulation, new finishing inside and completely repainted, new large and deep kitchen sink and faucet.

7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $130,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $130,000 Active 2180-char remark
19. 2026-05-08
    listed $130,000 Active 2180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2180 chars)

    Second owner, beautiful, single wide manufactured home on a bright corner lot in Birchwood Estates! Read to the end to see the large list of improvements. The Seller has added over $40k since they bought it! This three bedroom, two bathroom home is different than all others that have sold recently! The open floor plan allows you the comfort of entertaining, while the split bedroom layout affords you the privacy you've always wanted. Entering from the large front porch, the living room is bright and beautiful and provides plenty of space for a dining table and plenty of comfortable seating. The kitchen has a large island with a breakfast bar, a new single, deep stainless steel sink, and a dishwasher. There is a newer refrigerator and gas stove with a large vent hood, perfect for anyone who enjoys cooking or just looking fancy. There is plenty of cabinet storage for your small appliances and a pantry for food storage. Off of the kitchen is the spacious master bedroom with a private master bath. The bedroom has a forced air heat source, a vinyl single hung window and access to the private master bathroom with a large closet area. The bathroom also has a tub with a shower, vinyl flooring, and vanity and ceiling lights. On the other side of the home are the two other bedrooms, both with nicely sized closets, heat sources, and vinyl windows. The guest bathroom is also on this side of the home and has a tub with a shower, vinyl flooring, and a vanity light and vent fan. The laundry is in the hallway for your convenience, along with the forced air furnace and 200 amp electrical panel. Outside you have a shed for storage and a driveway for off-street parking. The corner lot allows for plenty of space between you and your neighbors, and this is probably the most green space in the neighborhood. The $514 per month lot rent includes water, sewer, and garbage. Recent improvements include the following: New flooring throughout $14k, new central air, new storage shed $6k, New carport, new washing machine and dryer, new covered front porch, new skirting and insulation, new finishing inside and completely repainted, new large and deep kitchen sink and faucet.

20. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus $65,000

    Show marketing remark (1711 chars)

    One owner, beautiful, single wide manufactured home on a bright corner lot in Birchwood Estates! This three bedroom, two bathroom home is different than all others that have sold recently! The open floor plan allows you the comfort of entertaining, while the split bedroom layout affords you the privacy you've always wanted. Entering from the large front porch, the living room is bright and beautiful and provides plenty of space for a dining table and plenty of comfortable seating. The kitchen has a large island with a breakfast bar, double sink, and a dishwasher. There is a gas stove with a vent hood, perfect for anyone who enjoys cooking or just looking fancy. There is plenty of cabinet storage for your small appliances and a pantry for food storage. Off of the kitchen is the spacious master bedroom with a private master bath. The bedroom has a forced air heat source, a vinyl single hung window and access to the private master bathroom with a large closet area. The bathroom also has a tub with a shower, vinyl flooring, and vanity and ceiling lights. On the other side of the home are the two other bedrooms, both with nicely sized closets, heat sources, and vinyl windows. The guest bathroom is also on this side of the home and has a tub with a shower, vinyl flooring, and a vanity light and vent fan. The laundry is in the hallway for your convenience, along with the forced air furnace and 200 amp electrical panel. Outside you have a shed for storage and a driveway for off-street parking. The corner lot allows for plenty of space between you and your neighbors, and this is probably the most green space in the neighborhood. The $400 per month lot rent includes water, sewer, and garbage.

21. 2022-09-30
    listed $70,000

    Show marketing remark (1711 chars)

    One owner, beautiful, single wide manufactured home on a bright corner lot in Birchwood Estates! This three bedroom, two bathroom home is different than all others that have sold recently! The open floor plan allows you the comfort of entertaining, while the split bedroom layout affords you the privacy you've always wanted. Entering from the large front porch, the living room is bright and beautiful and provides plenty of space for a dining table and plenty of comfortable seating. The kitchen has a large island with a breakfast bar, double sink, and a dishwasher. There is a gas stove with a vent hood, perfect for anyone who enjoys cooking or just looking fancy. There is plenty of cabinet storage for your small appliances and a pantry for food storage. Off of the kitchen is the spacious master bedroom with a private master bath. The bedroom has a forced air heat source, a vinyl single hung window and access to the private master bathroom with a large closet area. The bathroom also has a tub with a shower, vinyl flooring, and vanity and ceiling lights. On the other side of the home are the two other bedrooms, both with nicely sized closets, heat sources, and vinyl windows. The guest bathroom is also on this side of the home and has a tub with a shower, vinyl flooring, and a vanity light and vent fan. The laundry is in the hallway for your convenience, along with the forced air furnace and 200 amp electrical panel. Outside you have a shed for storage and a driveway for off-street parking. The corner lot allows for plenty of space between you and your neighbors, and this is probably the most green space in the neighborhood. The $400 per month lot rent includes water, sewer, and garbage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $7,958
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,910
• After-tax cash flow: $7,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-wide manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermantown Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2713920
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $67,133
• Composite: 46.47/100
• National rank: #2438
• State rank: #73 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hermantown

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #10529

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hermantown, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 28,218
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 28,118
• Household income: $79,804
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.84%
• Current HPI: 198.2613
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+78.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $125,000 LSAR
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $130,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $130,000 LSAR
• 2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) $65,000 LSAR
• 2022-09-30 Listed $70,000 LSAR