111 Custer Rd · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$129,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1979 5,053 sqft lot $106/sqft · 58% above area Est $87k · 48% over $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 3-bath updated manufactured home with convenient access to Cedar Creek Lake, perfect for enjoying boating, fishing, and laid-back days by the water. Located within a community featuring a gated pool, park, playground, and on-site trash compactor for added ease. Whether you're looking for a quiet getaway or a place to gather with friends and family, this property offers a comfortable, easygoing lifestyle with everyday conveniences close by.

Key facts

• Gated pool
• Community park
• Playground

Tags

• CEDAR CREEK LAKE ACCESS
• GATED POOL
• COMMUNITY PARK
• PLAYGROUND
• ON-SITE TRASH COMPACTOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lake front - common area access; Lot less than 0.5 acre (approximately 0.116 acres); Subdivision: Cherokee Shores Sub Sec D; County: Henderson
• Financial info: Loan type listed as 'Treat As Clear'; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Cherokee Shores POA); Annual association fee: $100; Association provides full use of facilities and management services

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no garage or carport spaces)
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: MUD water; MUD sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1979
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Level: 1) — ensuite bath; Total bedrooms: 3
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: Total bathrooms: 3 (all full)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Decorative lighting
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eustace Pri (497 students, 74% FRL); Eustace Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 382 students, 63% FRL); Eustace H S (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 473 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 707 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.45%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,200
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 47.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7111 Inca Trl	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,064 (-12%)	1mo	$88,900	$84	58
127 Little River Bnd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+6%)	22mo	$275,000	$214	55
7657 Double Bridge Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-5%)	19mo	$84,500	$73	52
100 Kiowa Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,191 (-2%)	24mo	$117,900	$99	49
102 Lake Arrowhead Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	14mo	$37,000	$35	48
121 Coahoma St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	9mo	$87,400	$82	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-17,985
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-21,429
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 707
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$8
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $148	+0% $104	+5% $59	+10% $15
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $54	+0% $104	+5% $154	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $137	base $104	+0.5pp $70	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Bowie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	46d	1	0.32mi
120 Trails End St Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,895	$1.61	46d	1	0.98mi
102 Lynn Creek Dr Mabank, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$995	$0.71	46d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashpoolsecurity

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $139,000 Active 454-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,219
• − Management: −$1,219
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $1,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $129,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $139,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $184 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.