224 East Pine Ave · Winnie, TX 77665

$85,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1962 $69/sqft · 51% below area ↓ 43% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 224 Pine street. Older home in need of some TLC. The home has a nice sized yard with shade trees in the backyard, with a patio for entertaining. There are 2 bedrooms, 1 bath. The Living room / Den is a nice size for a family gathering. The kitchen is spacious with an island and a dining area. There is a nice sized utility room with a storage closet. Come by and take a look at this home.

Key facts

• Nice sized yard
• Shade trees
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• NICE SIZED YARD
• SHADE TREES
• PATIO FOR ENTERTAINING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ISLAND
• DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#527 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Chambers ISD (town): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #199 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Chambers El (math 60% / reading 47%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 336 students, 64% FRL); East Chambers J H (math 42% / reading 46%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 357 students, 61% FRL); East Chambers H S (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 451 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.79%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,806
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -50.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 East Pine Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$85,000	$69	98
514 Joan St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (-1%)	23mo	$164,990	$136	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $7,532
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $34,253
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77665

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,711/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $895

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $381	-5% $357	+0% $333	+5% $309	+10% $285
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $281	+0% $333	+5% $385	+10% $437
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $355	base $333	+0.5pp $311	+1.0pp $289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Welcome to 224 Pine street. Older home in need of some TLC. The home has a nice sized yard with shade trees in the backyard, with a patio for entertaining. There are 2 bedrooms, 1 bath. The Living room / Den is a nice size for a family gathering. The kitchen is spacious with an island and a dining area. There is a nice sized utility room with a storage closet. Come by and take a look at this home.

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Welcome to 224 Pine street. Older home in need of some TLC. The home has a nice sized yard with shade trees in the backyard, with a patio for entertaining. There are 2 bedrooms, 1 bath. The Living room / Den is a nice size for a family gathering. The kitchen is spacious with an island and a dining area. There is a nice sized utility room with a storage closet. Come by and take a look at this home.

3. 2026-04-19
   price $85,000 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Welcome to 224 Pine street. Older home in need of some TLC. The home has a nice sized yard with shade trees in the backyard, with a patio for entertaining. There are 2 bedrooms, 1 bath. The Living room / Den is a nice size for a family gathering. The kitchen is spacious with an island and a dining area. There is a nice sized utility room with a storage closet. Come by and take a look at this home.

4. 2026-03-08
   price $145,000 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Welcome to 224 Pine street. Older home in need of some TLC. The home has a nice sized yard with shade trees in the backyard, with a patio for entertaining. There are 2 bedrooms, 1 bath. The Living room / Den is a nice size for a family gathering. The kitchen is spacious with an island and a dining area. There is a nice sized utility room with a storage closet. Come by and take a look at this home.

5. 2026-02-15
   listed $150,000 Active 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Welcome to 224 Pine street. Older home in need of some TLC. The home has a nice sized yard with shade trees in the backyard, with a patio for entertaining. There are 2 bedrooms, 1 bath. The Living room / Den is a nice size for a family gathering. The kitchen is spacious with an island and a dining area. There is a nice sized utility room with a storage closet. Come by and take a look at this home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,711 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,711 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,711
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$696
• After-tax cash flow: $3,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Chambers ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817880
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,131
• Composite: 41.71/100
• National rank: #3411
• State rank: #199 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winnie

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #10331

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winnie, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,751

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.27%
• Current HPI: 187.3594
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-43.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $150,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,711 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.