23 Portofino Ln · Palm Coast, FL 32164

$397,630

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,070 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $739k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this elegant Slate home. Included features: a charming covered entry; a well-appointed kitchen showcasing a large island and a walk-in pantry; an adjacent dining area; a great room that overlooks a relaxing covered patio; a lavish primary suite offering an attached bathroom with dual sinks, a soaking tub, and a roomy walk-in closet; a central laundry; three additional bedrooms, including one with an en-suite bath; and a third full bathroom. This could be your dream home!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• DINING NOOK
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $395,400

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family property (Spec new construction, Slate plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 23 Portofino Ln, Palm Coast, FL 32164

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (2,070 total living area); Spec home — 'Slate' plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $398k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $513 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $398k).
• Recommended offer: $392k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1367 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,127/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 1291% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $391,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.53%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $738,990
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Marbella Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (+1%)	11mo	$700,000	$334	57
7 Marbella Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,992 (-4%)	12mo	$550,000	$276	55
3 Monterrey Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,123 (+3%)	2mo	$790,000	$372	53
15 Marbella Ct	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,336 (+13%)	2mo	$825,000	$353	49
15 Via Capri	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (-8%)	8mo	$745,000	$393	48
21 Marbella Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,028 (-2%)	21mo	$725,000	$357	48
3 Via Capri	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,882 (-9%)	9mo	$500,000	$266	45
22 Marbella Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (-6%)	24mo	$700,000	$359	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-39,138
• Equity at exit: $59,288

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-21,147
• Equity at exit: $34,380

Cash invested: $111,336 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32164

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1367
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,127 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,085
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$497 /mo · $5,964/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$867
• Net cashflow: $513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,478

Max offer price $397,630

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $788	-5% $650	+0% $513	+5% $375	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $187	-5% $350	+0% $513	+5% $676	+10% $839
Rate	-1.0pp $713	-0.5pp $614	base $513	+0.5pp $410	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,408
• Closing costs: $11,929
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
85 Avenue de la Mer #805 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	2110	$6,900	$3.27	24d	1	0.26mi
120 Avenue de la Mer #1502 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	2463	$4,500	$1.83	15d	1	0.28mi
16 Marbella Ct Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	2429	$5,500	$2.26	19d	1	0.51mi
100 Palm Harbor Pkwy #29 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,000	$1.37	24d	1	1.03mi
700 Canopy Walk Ln #741 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1712	$3,000	$1.75	24d	1	1.06mi
73 Moana Ct N Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,900	$1.47	15d	1	1.08mi
1200 Canopy Walk Ln #1235 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1712	$2,550	$1.49	24d	1	1.17mi
35 Captains Walk Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1565	$2,400	$1.53	24d	1	1.22mi
179 Misty Harbor Trce Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1941	$2,300	$1.18	15d	1	1.25mi
115 Riverview Bnd S #2145 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$3,000	$1.90	3d	1	1.25mi
115 Riverview Bnd S #2145 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$3,000	$1.90	15d	1	1.25mi
27 Classic Ct S Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2073	$3,200	$1.54	24d	1	1.39mi
900 Cinnamon Beach Way Unit 1261621P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1689	$8,231	$4.87	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $397,630 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $397,630 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $397,630 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $397,630 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $397,630 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $397,400 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $397,400 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $397,400 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $397,400 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,273
• − Property taxes: −$5,964
• − Insurance: −$1,988
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,962
• − Management: −$3,962
• − Depreciation: −$11,567
• Taxable loss: −$189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$45
• After-tax cash flow: $6,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Slate home is in good condition with a good layout and features. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,658
• Household income: $76,399
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.89%
• Current HPI: 297.4942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B