115 Herman Ln · Wylie, TX 75407

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,155 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 3,311 sqft lot $165/sqft · at area comps Est $198k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover modern comfort and peaceful living in this charming home located in the sought-after Tillage Farms community in Princeton. Designed with both functionality and style in mind, this home features an open-concept floor plan ideal for everyday living and effortless entertaining. The spacious kitchen serves as the heart of the home, complete with rich wood cabinetry, granite countertops, and abundant prep space. A cozy breakfast nook provides the perfect setting for casual dining and morning coffee. The private primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with an ensuite bath. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Step outside to a nicely landscaped backyard with a wood privacy fence that is perfect for entertaining, play, or quiet evenings outdoors.

Key facts

• Cozy breakfast nook
• Rich wood cabinetry
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• RICH WOOD CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ABUNDANT PREP SPACE
• COZY BREAKFAST NOOK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-557/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,089
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -4.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6513 Waterfall Ln	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,099 (-5%)	1mo	$219,000	$199	75
6524 Shoreline Ln	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,098 (-5%)	1mo	$215,000	$196	73
228 Tall Cedar Way	0.31mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,101 (-5%)	1mo	$209,620	$190	70
220 Tall Cedar Way	0.30mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,101 (-5%)	3mo	$202,990	$184	69
217 Tall Cedar Way	0.32mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,101 (-5%)	3mo	$204,990	$186	68
220 Arbor Dr	0.34mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,101 (-5%)	2mo	$204,990	$186	68
307 Tall Cedar Way	0.34mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,101 (-5%)	3mo	$202,990	$184	67
225 Tall Cedar Way	0.34mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,101 (-5%)	3mo	$215,490	$196	66
125 Redwood Rd	0.40mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,101 (-5%)	1mo	$204,990	$186	66
6507 Glade St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+10%)	2mo	$209,999	$166	61
6517 Glade St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+10%)	3mo	$206,999	$164	61
6728 Teal Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+10%)	0mo	$239,999	$189	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-38,966
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-57,889
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1410
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,479/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $181,798

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $7	+0% $-46	+5% $-100	+10% $-154
Rent	-10% $-191	-5% $-119	+0% $-46	+5% $26	+10% $98
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $2	base $-46	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
152 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	14d	1	0.05mi
6723 Coulter Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1018	$1,500	$1.47	45d	1	0.06mi
211 Herman Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,595	$1.23	45d	1	0.07mi
150 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,899	$1.87	7d	1	0.07mi
6739 Coulter Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,500	$1.30	45d	1	0.08mi
119 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,999	$1.54	14d	1	0.09mi
206 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,475	$1.28	22d	1	0.10mi
6550 August Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,695	$1.20	6d	1	0.11mi
6561 Alfalfa St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,599	$1.11	45d	1	0.11mi
230 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,520	$1.17	1d	1	0.13mi
241 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,850	$1.43	26d	1	0.14mi
145 Jethro Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,499	$1.45	26d	1	0.14mi
252 Jethro Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	45d	1	0.17mi
151 Sesame Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1299	$1,634	$1.26	26d	1	0.19mi
6808 Sunbeam Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,534	$1.33	24d	1	0.20mi
6445 Middlebury Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,649	$1.30	9d	1	0.21mi
214 Wheatgrass Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,699	$1.21	45d	1	0.23mi
6751 Highlands St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,639	$1.16	19d	1	0.24mi
204 Tall Cedar Way Princeton, TX	2.0	2.5	1130	$1,490	$1.32	45d	1	0.27mi
402 Harvest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,665	$1.16	14d	1	0.29mi
134 Harvest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,825	$1.27	20d	1	0.32mi
6111 Shearwater Rd , TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,900	$1.36	1d	1	0.33mi
321 Tall Cedar Way Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1468	$1,725	$1.18	45d	1	0.35mi
6114 Holly Spring Rd , TX	2.0	2.5	1351	$1,550	$1.15	14d	1	0.35mi
6203 Holly Spring Rd , TX	2.0	2.5	1130	$1,595	$1.41	45d	1	0.35mi
6114 Holly Spring Rd , TX	2.0	2.5	1130	$1,675	$1.48	45d	1	0.35mi
545 Holleman Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,750	$1.19	45d	1	0.45mi
538 Montclair Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,775	$1.41	12d	1	0.45mi
7020 Vining DR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1382	$1,850	$1.34	26d	1	0.45mi
416 Finch CIR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,350	$1.07	45d	1	0.48mi
6744 Teal Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,790	$1.21	22d	1	0.50mi
613 Holleman Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	1d	1	0.51mi
619 Fisher Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,600	$1.27	45d	1	0.56mi
600 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,100	$1.50	14d	1	0.58mi
241 Boxberry Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,725	$1.22	45d	1	0.64mi
143 Plumcove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1376	$2,150	$1.56	45d	1	0.66mi
6222 Sandpiper Ln Unit NA Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	9d	1	0.73mi
724 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,650	$1.21	1d	1	0.78mi
724 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,675	$1.23	5d	1	0.78mi
812 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1309	$1,850	$1.41	45d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $190,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $190,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-05
    price $194,000 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Discover modern comfort and peaceful living in this charming home located in the sought-after Tillage Farms community in Princeton. Designed with both functionality and style in mind, this home features an open-concept floor plan ideal for everyday living and effortless entertaining. The spacious kitchen serves as the heart of the home, complete with rich wood cabinetry, granite countertops, and abundant prep space. A cozy breakfast nook provides the perfect setting for casual dining and morning coffee. The private primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with an ensuite bath. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Step outside to a nicely landscaped backyard with a wood privacy fence that is perfect for entertaining, play, or quiet evenings outdoors.

14. 2026-02-19
    listed $195,000 Active 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Discover modern comfort and peaceful living in this charming home located in the sought-after Tillage Farms community in Princeton. Designed with both functionality and style in mind, this home features an open-concept floor plan ideal for everyday living and effortless entertaining. The spacious kitchen serves as the heart of the home, complete with rich wood cabinetry, granite countertops, and abundant prep space. A cozy breakfast nook provides the perfect setting for casual dining and morning coffee. The private primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with an ensuite bath. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Step outside to a nicely landscaped backyard with a wood privacy fence that is perfect for entertaining, play, or quiet evenings outdoors.

15. 2026-01-10
    historical
16. 2025-10-29
    price $195,000
17. 2025-07-08
    price $209,900
18. 2025-06-24
    price $224,999
19. 2025-06-11
    listed $229,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,479 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,479 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$4,479
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$882
• After-tax cash flow: $325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming single-family home in Tillage Farms, Princeton, is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It features a well-maintained exterior, interior, and landscaping, making it a move-in-ready property with good resale and rental potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves the kitchen's visual appeal and functionality.
• Resale Bathroom vanity and fixtures — Enhances the bathroom's functionality and aesthetics.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves the kitchen's visual appeal and functionality. ↑
• Resale Bathroom vanity and fixtures — Enhances the bathroom's functionality and aesthetics. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $194,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $209,900 NTREIS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $224,999 NTREIS
• 2025-06-11 Listed $229,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+173.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,479 · -11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.