345 Derrick Dr · Canyon Lake, TX 78070

$298,499

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,064 sqft · Other · 314 Days on market

Built 2004 1.14 ac lot $97/sqft · 22% below area Est $385k · 22% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious one-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, perfectly situated on a 1.14-acre corner lot with beautiful wooded and country views. Enjoy the peace of no city taxes and the added security of a gated neighborhood with controlled access. The property features a triple wide home with a brand-new HVAC system and updated ducts, making it move-in ready and available for FHA purchase. This charming residence combines comfort, privacy, and convenience, making it an ideal retreat for those seeking space and tranquility.

Key facts

• Gated neighborhood
• Controlled access
• Triple wide home

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• 1.14 ACRE CORNER LOT
• GATED NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONTROLLED ACCESS
• TRIPLE WIDE HOME
• BRAND NEW HVAC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($683/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,373 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,864
• List price: $298,499
• Delta: -22.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-44,878
• Equity at exit: $44,507

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-34,957
• Equity at exit: $25,809

Cash invested: $83,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78070

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,334 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,565
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $960/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,262

Max offer price $298,499

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $141	+0% $57	+5% $-28	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-35	+0% $57	+5% $149	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $133	base $57	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,625
• Closing costs: $8,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
950 Rebecca Springs Rd Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	2128	$2,100	$0.99	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Back on Market 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   This spacious one-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, perfectly situated on a 1.14-acre corner lot with beautiful wooded and country views. Enjoy the peace of no city taxes and the added security of a gated neighborhood with controlled access. The property features a triple wide home with a brand-new HVAC system and updated ducts, making it move-in ready and available for FHA purchase. This charming residence combines comfort, privacy, and convenience, making it an ideal retreat for those seeking space and tranquility.

2. 2026-03-27
   historical Active Option 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   This spacious one-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, perfectly situated on a 1.14-acre corner lot with beautiful wooded and country views. Enjoy the peace of no city taxes and the added security of a gated neighborhood with controlled access. The property features a triple wide home with a brand-new HVAC system and updated ducts, making it move-in ready and available for FHA purchase. This charming residence combines comfort, privacy, and convenience, making it an ideal retreat for those seeking space and tranquility.

3. 2026-02-11
   price $298,499 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   This spacious one-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, perfectly situated on a 1.14-acre corner lot with beautiful wooded and country views. Enjoy the peace of no city taxes and the added security of a gated neighborhood with controlled access. The property features a triple wide home with a brand-new HVAC system and updated ducts, making it move-in ready and available for FHA purchase. This charming residence combines comfort, privacy, and convenience, making it an ideal retreat for those seeking space and tranquility.

4. 2025-09-20
   price $298,500 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   This spacious one-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, perfectly situated on a 1.14-acre corner lot with beautiful wooded and country views. Enjoy the peace of no city taxes and the added security of a gated neighborhood with controlled access. The property features a triple wide home with a brand-new HVAC system and updated ducts, making it move-in ready and available for FHA purchase. This charming residence combines comfort, privacy, and convenience, making it an ideal retreat for those seeking space and tranquility.

5. 2025-08-12
   status Back on Market 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   This spacious one-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, perfectly situated on a 1.14-acre corner lot with beautiful wooded and country views. Enjoy the peace of no city taxes and the added security of a gated neighborhood with controlled access. The property features a triple wide home with a brand-new HVAC system and updated ducts, making it move-in ready and available for FHA purchase. This charming residence combines comfort, privacy, and convenience, making it an ideal retreat for those seeking space and tranquility.

6. 2025-08-05
   historical Active Option 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   This spacious one-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, perfectly situated on a 1.14-acre corner lot with beautiful wooded and country views. Enjoy the peace of no city taxes and the added security of a gated neighborhood with controlled access. The property features a triple wide home with a brand-new HVAC system and updated ducts, making it move-in ready and available for FHA purchase. This charming residence combines comfort, privacy, and convenience, making it an ideal retreat for those seeking space and tranquility.

7. 2025-07-17
   listed $299,000 New 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   This spacious one-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, perfectly situated on a 1.14-acre corner lot with beautiful wooded and country views. Enjoy the peace of no city taxes and the added security of a gated neighborhood with controlled access. The property features a triple wide home with a brand-new HVAC system and updated ducts, making it move-in ready and available for FHA purchase. This charming residence combines comfort, privacy, and convenience, making it an ideal retreat for those seeking space and tranquility.

8. 2023-11-02
   historical
9. 2023-09-08
   price $339,999
10. 2023-07-25
    price $341,000
11. 2023-07-06
    price $365,000
12. 2023-06-14
    price $380,000
13. 2023-05-11
    listed $345,000 New
14. 2003-09-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,463 · $455/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,503/yr (+$375/mo · 469.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,721
• − Property taxes: −$960
• − Insurance: −$1,492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,240
• − Management: −$2,240
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$8,684
• Taxable loss: −$4,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,089
• After-tax cash flow: $1,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,200
• Household income: $115,175
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.35%
• Current HPI: 233.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-03-27 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $298,499 LERA
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $298,500 LERA
• 2025-08-12 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-08-05 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-07-17 Listed $299,000 LERA
• 2023-11-02 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $339,999 LERA
• 2023-07-25 Price Changed $341,000 LERA
• 2023-07-06 Price Changed $365,000 LERA
• 2023-06-14 Price Changed $380,000 LERA
• 2023-05-11 Listed $345,000 LERA
• 2003-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $960 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.