3125 Illinois St · Baytown, TX 77520

$319,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 209 Days on market

Built 1928 5,200 sqft lot $248/sqft · 95% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

4 Unit Multifamily - Main House is a 3 Beds 2 Baths, 2 Garage Apartments upstairs & Downstairs are 1 bed 1 bath each, and 1 studio apartment. Garage apartment could also be accessed through the alley or from the front of the house. 3 Units are currently occupied. Please DO NOT disturb tenants.

Key facts

• 5,200 sq ft lot
• Built 1928
• Listed 208 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $129/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $319k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 657 students, 91% FRL); Baytown J H (math 35% / reading 29%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 743 students, 83% FRL); Lee H S (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,845 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 61% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 274 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,580/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.84%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,727
• List price: $319,000
• Delta: 94.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3212 Illinois St	0.06mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,372 (+6%)	16mo	$139,999	$102	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-24,677
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,497
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77520

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 29.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,580 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$439 /mo · $5,270/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$752
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,926

Max offer price $319,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $697	-5% $607	+0% $517	+5% $427	+10% $336
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $375	+0% $517	+5% $658	+10% $800
Rate	-1.0pp $677	-0.5pp $598	base $517	+0.5pp $434	+1.0pp $350

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	1	—	$3,580
Total (4 units)			$3,580

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3419 Illinois St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1065	$1,195	$1.12	0d	1	0.27mi
1206 Missouri St Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1046	$1,023	$0.98	45d	1	1.10mi
811 Barrymore Blvd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	7d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,000 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,000 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,000 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $319,000 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,000 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,000 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,000 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2025-11-25
    listed $319,000 Active 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    4 Unit Multifamily - Main House is a 3 Beds 2 Baths, 2 Garage Apartments upstairs & Downstairs are 1 bed 1 bath each, and 1 studio apartment. Garage apartment could also be accessed through the alley or from the front of the house. 3 Units are currently occupied. Please DO NOT disturb tenants.

15. 2025-02-06
    historical
16. 2024-08-20
    historical $995
17. 2024-08-08
    price $995
18. 2024-07-30
    listed $1,050
19. 2024-07-29
    listed $348,000 Active
20. 2024-03-02
    historical $1,700
21. 2024-02-18
    historical $1,700
22. 2024-02-17
    listed $1,700
23. 2024-02-07
    listed $600
24. 2023-09-23
    historical $875
25. 2023-08-01
    price $875
26. 2022-06-02
    soldstatus
27. 2022-05-31
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2022-04-11
    status Pending
29. 2022-04-08
    listed $950 Active
30. 2022-04-08
    historical
31. 2022-03-30
    status Pending, Continue to Show
32. 2022-03-14
    status Pending
33. 2022-03-08
    status Option Pending
34. 2022-02-03
    listed $349,900 Active
35. 2021-09-28
    soldstatus
36. 2021-09-27
    soldstatus Sold
37. 2021-09-15
    status Pending
38. 2021-09-09
    listed $219,900 Active
39. 2021-09-09
    historical
40. 2021-08-30
    price $220,000
41. 2021-08-26
    historical
42. 2021-08-26
    listed $214,900 Active
43. 2021-07-30
    status Active
44. 2021-07-29
    status Pending, Continue to Show
45. 2021-07-14
    status Pending
46. 2021-06-21
    status Pending, Continue to Show
47. 2021-06-15
    soldstatus
48. 2021-05-27
    status Pending
49. 2021-05-19
    status Active
50. 2021-05-18
    status Option Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,270 · $439/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,838 · $486/mo
• Expected delta: +$568/yr (+$47/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$5,270
• − Insurance: −$2,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,437
• − Management: −$3,437
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable income: $1,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$306
• After-tax cash flow: $5,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,355
• Household income: $54,278
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.36%
• Current HPI: 262.066
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+48.4% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-25 Listed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-20 Rental Removed $995 HARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $995 HARMLS
• 2024-07-30 Listed for Rent $1,050 HARMLS
• 2024-07-29 Listed $348,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-02 Rental Removed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2024-02-18 Rental Removed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2024-02-17 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2024-02-07 Listed for Rent $600 HARMLS
• 2023-09-23 Rental Removed $875 HARMLS
• 2023-08-01 Price Changed $875 HARMLS
• 2022-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-04-08 Listed $950 HARMLS
• 2022-03-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-03 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2021-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-09-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-09-09 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2021-08-30 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-26 Listed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2021-08-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-07-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-07-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-27 Listed $214,900 HARMLS
• 1999-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,270 · -19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.