434 F A Cassin Jr Ave · Newell, PA 15466

$30,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1900 4,983 sqft lot $23/sqft · 71% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

According to the seller, property will need torn-down. Demolition permit in hand.

Key facts

• 4,983 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Access to public transportation

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service; Electric service
• Home design: 2-story frame residence; Asphalt roof; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: On-street parking; Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Electric and gas cooling available
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Basement with walk-out access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,104 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• Frazier SD (rural): math 25% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #371 of 539 in PA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 201 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Fayette County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $30k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $29,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.03%
• DSCR: 4.87
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,610
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -71.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 1st St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (+8%)	14mo	$104,000	$73	44
416 Ash St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (-5%)	14mo	$158,000	$126	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $44,000
• Equity at exit: $15,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.0%
• Equity multiple: 12.95×
• Total profit: $100,421
• Equity at exit: $24,746

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15466

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,034 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 1st St Unit 1 California, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$950	$0.79	43d	1	0.50mi
54 Temperance Way Unit 7 California, PA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,095	$0.84	14d	1	0.52mi
72 Second St Unit 6 California, PA	3.0	2.0	1004	$1,250	$1.25	23d	1	0.54mi
300 Strawberry Way California, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$775	$0.86	43d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $30,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $30,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $25,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $25,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $25,000 81-char remark
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $30,000 Active 81-char remark
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $30,000 Active 81-char remark

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    According to the seller, property will need torn-down. Demolition permit in hand.

18. 2026-03-31
    price $35,000

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    According to the seller, property will need torn-down. Demolition permit in hand.

19. 2026-02-12
    price $40,000

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    According to the seller, property will need torn-down. Demolition permit in hand.

20. 2026-01-07
    price $50,000

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    According to the seller, property will need torn-down. Demolition permit in hand.

21. 2025-12-19
    listed $55,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    According to the seller, property will need torn-down. Demolition permit in hand.

22. 2024-11-12
    price $15,000
23. 2024-09-23
    listed $20,000 Active
24. 2002-04-30
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$992
• − Management: −$992
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $7,266
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,744
• After-tax cash flow: $5,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frazier SD
• NCES district ID: 4210350
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,463
• Composite: 32.8/100
• National rank: #5628
• State rank: #371 of 539 in PA

Livability — Newell

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #1104
• US rank: #12551

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newell, PA
• City population: 437
• Population (ZIP): 437

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,561 people
• By 2030: 123,206 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 113,232 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 103,468 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 83,185 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 62,384 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Estonian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.9) · D 30.8% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.5pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -37.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.9 2020: R+33.5 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Current HPI: 184.3297
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $30,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $25,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $30,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $30,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $35,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $40,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $50,000 West Penn MLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $55,000 West Penn MLS
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $15,000 West Penn MLS
• 2024-09-23 Listed $20,000 West Penn MLS
• 2002-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,043 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.