451 10th Ave SW · Graysville, AL 35073

$25,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 1956 0.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

needs TLC

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $659 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#321 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Adamsville Elementary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #568 of 627 statewide, top 94%, 302 students, 83% FRL); Minor Middle School (math 0% / reading 18%, grade F, #235 of 257 statewide, top 93%, 728 students, 88% FRL); Minor High School (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #275 of 305 statewide, top 90%, 915 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 49% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($173 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.95%
• DSCR: 6.03
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.12% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.64×
• Total profit: $46,499
• Equity at exit: $12,850

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.99×
• Total profit: $104,958
• Equity at exit: $21,158

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35073

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $265/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $659

Break-even live

Break-even rent $207

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $673	-5% $666	+0% $659	+5% $652	+10% $645
Rent	-10% $577	-5% $618	+0% $659	+5% $700	+10% $741
Rate	-1.0pp $671	-0.5pp $665	base $659	+0.5pp $652	+1.0pp $646

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
167 2nd St SE Graysville, AL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,100	$1.02	3d	1	0.96mi
5308 Adams Ave Adamsville, AL	3.0	2.0	816	$1,195	$1.46	25d	1	1.22mi
540 1st Ave NE Graysville, AL	2.0	2.0	882	$850	$0.96	4d	1	1.29mi
216 Mountain St Adamsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1027	$999	$0.97	45d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-01-02
   status Pending
2. 2024-12-06
   listed $25,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $265 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $265 · $22/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$265
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$999
• − Management: −$999
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $7,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,914
• After-tax cash flow: $5,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Graysville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #19807

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graysville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 2,839

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 27% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.12%
• Current HPI: 176.8227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-02 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-12-06 Listed $25,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $265 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.