14-3446 Holiday Rd · Nanawale Estates, HI 96778

$149,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 820 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 2018 Good condition 8,040 sqft lot $182/sqft · 10% below area Est $166k · 10% under $9/mo HOA ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape the ordinary and step into your own private jungle retreat! This fully off-grid A-frame - it's for the visionary who craves simplicity, nature, and a little edge. Featuring a 1 bed / 1 bath layout (unpermitted), this rustic hideaway delivers raw island living with undeniable charm. Wake up to birdsong, sip your coffee surrounded by towering trees, and unwind in the screened-in lounge and open-air kitchen that blur the line between indoors and out. Every inch of this property invites you to slow down and reconnect with nature, with yourself, with the lifestyle most people only dream about. Fenced and gated for added privacy. Off-grid freedom Immersed in nature Not for everyone, but maybe exactly what you've been looking for.

Key facts

• Open-air kitchen
• Off-grid a-frame
• Fenced and gated

Tags

• PRIVATE JUNGLE RETREAT
• OFF-GRID A-FRAME
• SCREENED-IN LOUNGE
• OPEN-AIR KITCHEN
• FENCED AND GATED
• IMMERSED IN NATURE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#78 in HI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 387 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.02%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,400
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -10.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14-823 Seaview Rd	0.75mi	2/1.0 (+1)	855 (+4%)	2mo	$166,400	$195	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $301
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $31,829
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96778

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,315

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $486	-5% $435	+0% $383	+5% $332	+10% $280
Rent	-10% $241	-5% $312	+0% $383	+5% $454	+10% $525
Rate	-1.0pp $458	-0.5pp $421	base $383	+0.5pp $345	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14-865 Hapuu Rd Pahoa, HI	2.0	1.0	816	$1,800	$2.21	44d	1	0.59mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-04-19
    listed $155,000 Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Escape the ordinary and step into your own private jungle retreat! This fully off-grid A-frame - it's for the visionary who craves simplicity, nature, and a little edge. Featuring a 1 bed / 1 bath layout (unpermitted), this rustic hideaway delivers raw island living with undeniable charm. Wake up to birdsong, sip your coffee surrounded by towering trees, and unwind in the screened-in lounge and open-air kitchen that blur the line between indoors and out. Every inch of this property invites you to slow down and reconnect with nature, with yourself, with the lifestyle most people only dream about. Fenced and gated for added privacy. Off-grid freedom Immersed in nature Not for everyone, but maybe exactly what you've been looking for.

17. 2026-02-13
    historical
18. 2025-11-29
    price $165,000
19. 2025-10-16
    price $170,000
20. 2025-09-25
    price $175,000
21. 2025-04-01
    price $180,000
22. 2025-03-18
    price $187,000
23. 2025-02-07
    listed $193,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$570
• After-tax cash flow: $4,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This off-grid A-frame property offers a unique and serene living experience with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. Minor improvements to landscaping and interior paint would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the property's appeal and value
• Both HVAC system inspection and maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances the home's curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the property's appeal and value ↑
• Both HVAC system inspection and maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances the home's curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Nanawale Estates

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #17834

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nanawale Estates, HI
• Population (ZIP): 14,225

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.82)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Two or more races 30% Hispanic / Latino 15% Pacific Islander 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.52%
• Current HPI: 173.8168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-19.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $155,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-02-13 Listing Removed — HI Information Service
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $165,000 HI Information Service
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $170,000 HI Information Service
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $175,000 HI Information Service
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $180,000 HI Information Service
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $187,000 HI Information Service
• 2025-02-07 Listed $193,000 HI Information Service