14715 Scottburgh Glen Dr · Balm, FL 33598

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 253 Days on market

Built 2020 4,946 sqft lot $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous 3/2 Home Built in June 2020!!! Lennar Annapolis Model in Ayersworth Glen Subdivision with Beautiful Rear Water View. Interior and Exterior of home still in pristine condition. This home has an Open Floor Plan layout with Spacious Master Bedroom and Two Car Garage. Vaulted Ceilings give the Kitchen/Living Room a spacious feel. Master Bath offers a double vanity with a walk in shower, and Large Master closet. All major appliances convey with sale. Ayersworth Glen community offers a pool, parks, gym, walking paths and very close proximity to Big Bend Road and I-75. Location offers incredible convenience to Brandon/Tampa, while offering nearby shopping centers and restaurants. Seller is motivated, come see this beautiful home and get your offer in before it is gone!

Key facts

• Master suite
• Double vanity
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• REAR WATER VIEW
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Property zoned PD
• HOA & community: HOA required (Awerswort Glen Phase 3a) with clubhouse and pool; Monthly HOA approximately $8.25 (annual fee $99); Community amenities: fitness center, park, playground, pool, sidewalks, tennis courts; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Lennar (Annopolis model)
• Exterior features: Pond waterfront with water access and water view; Irrigation equipment; Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 42.9 x 115.3

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid wood cabinets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Reddick Elementary School (math 34% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 794 students, 78% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,351 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.63%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-60,961
• Equity at exit: $50,865

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-94,045
• Equity at exit: $39,263

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,555 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$638 /mo · $7,661/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $-241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,860

Max offer price $242,351

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-161	+0% $-241	+5% $-322	+10% $-403
Rent	-10% $-443	-5% $-342	+0% $-241	+5% $-141	+10% $-40
Rate	-1.0pp $-98	-0.5pp $-169	base $-241	+0.5pp $-315	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14525 Scottburgh Glen Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$3,300	$1.94	22d	1	0.19mi
10438 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,500	$1.34	25d	1	0.28mi
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,250	$1.44	5d	1	0.38mi
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,250	$1.27	18d	1	0.38mi
14452 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,250	$1.32	13d	1	0.94mi
14409 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,800	$1.08	25d	1	0.97mi
14442 Editors Note St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,100	$1.23	5d	1	1.00mi
14339 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,350	$1.38	22d	1	1.00mi
15628 Aurora Lake Cir Wimauma, FL	2.0	2.0	1747	$2,200	$1.26	25d	1	1.13mi
10124 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,150	$1.60	0d	1	1.19mi
14010 Hollow Leaf Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,195	$1.31	10d	1	1.29mi
10324 Geese Trail Cir Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,400	$1.44	25d	1	1.31mi
10313 Celtic Ash Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,005	$1.44	16d	1	1.33mi
15416 Gopher Trop Pl Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.0	1771	$2,300	$1.30	25d	1	1.36mi
10405 Apollo Manor Cir Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$3,163	$2.83	0d	30	1.36mi
14249 War Admiral Pl Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1747	$2,047	$1.17	5d	1	1.48mi
14243 Riva Ridge Pl Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1747	$2,047	$1.17	22d	1	1.48mi
10454 Shady Preserve Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	3.0	1642	$2,000	$1.22	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $285,000
3. 2026-04-02
   price $290,000
4. 2026-03-06
   price $295,000
5. 2026-01-30
   price $300,000
6. 2026-01-08
   price $305,000
7. 2025-11-10
   price $310,000
8. 2025-09-29
   price $315,000
9. 2025-08-28
   listed $325,000 Active
10. 2024-07-30
    historical $1,890
11. 2024-07-24
    price $1,890
12. 2024-07-18
    price $1,940
13. 2024-07-11
    price $1,955
14. 2024-06-28
    listed $1,995
15. 2023-06-23
    historical
16. 2021-12-28
    soldstatus $289,000
17. 2021-12-17
    soldstatus $289,000 Closed 781-char remark

    Show marketing remark (781 chars)

    Gorgeous 3/2 Home Built in June 2020!!! Lennar Annapolis Model in Ayersworth Glen Subdivision with Beautiful Rear Water View. Interior and Exterior of home still in pristine condition. This home has an Open Floor Plan layout with Spacious Master Bedroom and Two Car Garage. Vaulted Ceilings give the Kitchen/Living Room a spacious feel. Master Bath offers a double vanity with a walk in shower, and Large Master closet. All major appliances convey with sale. Ayersworth Glen community offers a pool, parks, gym, walking paths and very close proximity to Big Bend Road and I-75. Location offers incredible convenience to Brandon/Tampa, while offering nearby shopping centers and restaurants. Seller is motivated, come see this beautiful home and get your offer in before it is gone!

18. 2021-11-18
    status Pending 781-char remark

    Show marketing remark (781 chars)

    Gorgeous 3/2 Home Built in June 2020!!! Lennar Annapolis Model in Ayersworth Glen Subdivision with Beautiful Rear Water View. Interior and Exterior of home still in pristine condition. This home has an Open Floor Plan layout with Spacious Master Bedroom and Two Car Garage. Vaulted Ceilings give the Kitchen/Living Room a spacious feel. Master Bath offers a double vanity with a walk in shower, and Large Master closet. All major appliances convey with sale. Ayersworth Glen community offers a pool, parks, gym, walking paths and very close proximity to Big Bend Road and I-75. Location offers incredible convenience to Brandon/Tampa, while offering nearby shopping centers and restaurants. Seller is motivated, come see this beautiful home and get your offer in before it is gone!

19. 2021-11-16
    listed $279,900 Active 781-char remark

    Show marketing remark (781 chars)

    Gorgeous 3/2 Home Built in June 2020!!! Lennar Annapolis Model in Ayersworth Glen Subdivision with Beautiful Rear Water View. Interior and Exterior of home still in pristine condition. This home has an Open Floor Plan layout with Spacious Master Bedroom and Two Car Garage. Vaulted Ceilings give the Kitchen/Living Room a spacious feel. Master Bath offers a double vanity with a walk in shower, and Large Master closet. All major appliances convey with sale. Ayersworth Glen community offers a pool, parks, gym, walking paths and very close proximity to Big Bend Road and I-75. Location offers incredible convenience to Brandon/Tampa, while offering nearby shopping centers and restaurants. Seller is motivated, come see this beautiful home and get your offer in before it is gone!

20. 2020-06-18
    soldstatus $202,690 Sold 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Under Construction. The Annapolis provides 1,461 square feet, with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Mealtimes will be family times with a kitchen island for food prep, along with adjoining family and dining rooms. The laundry room is conveniently located next to the two-car garage, making it easy for night owls or early risers to do laundry without disturbing those sleeping. The master suite offers a walk-in closet, double sinks and toilet in a water closet, perfect for those hectic weekday mornings. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

21. 2020-04-10
    status Pending 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Under Construction. The Annapolis provides 1,461 square feet, with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Mealtimes will be family times with a kitchen island for food prep, along with adjoining family and dining rooms. The laundry room is conveniently located next to the two-car garage, making it easy for night owls or early risers to do laundry without disturbing those sleeping. The master suite offers a walk-in closet, double sinks and toilet in a water closet, perfect for those hectic weekday mornings. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

22. 2020-03-19
    price $202,690 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Under Construction. The Annapolis provides 1,461 square feet, with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Mealtimes will be family times with a kitchen island for food prep, along with adjoining family and dining rooms. The laundry room is conveniently located next to the two-car garage, making it easy for night owls or early risers to do laundry without disturbing those sleeping. The master suite offers a walk-in closet, double sinks and toilet in a water closet, perfect for those hectic weekday mornings. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

23. 2020-03-09
    listed $201,890 Active 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Under Construction. The Annapolis provides 1,461 square feet, with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Mealtimes will be family times with a kitchen island for food prep, along with adjoining family and dining rooms. The laundry room is conveniently located next to the two-car garage, making it easy for night owls or early risers to do laundry without disturbing those sleeping. The master suite offers a walk-in closet, double sinks and toilet in a water closet, perfect for those hectic weekday mornings. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,661 · $638/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,661 · $638/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$7,661
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,453
• − Management: −$2,453
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,844
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+41.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-30 Rental Removed $1,890 STELLARMLS
• 2024-07-24 Price Changed $1,890 STELLARMLS
• 2024-07-18 Price Changed $1,940 STELLARMLS
• 2024-07-11 Price Changed $1,955 STELLARMLS
• 2024-06-28 Listed for Rent $1,995 STELLARMLS
• 2023-06-23 Rental Removed — STELLARMLS
• 2021-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $289,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-17 Sold (MLS) $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-16 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-18 Sold (MLS) $202,690 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-19 Price Changed $202,690 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-09 Listed $201,890 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+22.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,661 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.