2366 Northumberland Ct · Haines City, FL 33844

$319,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,941 sqft · Land · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 5,662 sqft lot $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bed | 3 bath | 2-bay | 1941 sqft * Closing costs are additional and not included in the USDA 30 year fixed rate 100% financing. Terms and availability of this loan program, and the sales price, are examples only and are subject to change without notice. Loans are subject to credit approval. Restrictions and conditions may apply. USDA loans are subject to income and geographic eligibility criteria. Loan program is available through Inspire Home Loans® | NMLS # 1564276, click here for State Licensing Disclosures with additional information found at NMLS Consumer Access: www. nmlsconsumeraccess.org . ©02/2025 Century Communities, Inc.

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Projected completion date: September 2026; CDD applicable; Lot about 0.13 acre (paved road access)
• Financial info: Other annual assessment (approx. $2,216)
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee (approx. $48.42); HOA managed by Highland Community Management; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, park, trails, recreation facilities, community mailbox, dog park; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with 19x20 dimensions; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; New construction (completed); Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Century Complete (model CAMBRIA-A6)
• Exterior features: Patio; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Patio/porch area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Stone countertops; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Insulated / thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-332 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $234,962 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-77,238
• Equity at exit: $47,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-111,279
• Equity at exit: $27,667

Cash invested: $89,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,944/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,770

Max offer price $261,370

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-151	-5% $-241	+0% $-332	+5% $-422	+10% $-513
Rent	-10% $-517	-5% $-425	+0% $-332	+5% $-239	+10% $-146
Rate	-1.0pp $-171	-0.5pp $-250	base $-332	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-499

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,998
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2501 Merseyside Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	3.5	2320	$2,250	$0.97	25d	1	0.19mi
2986 Salisbury Ave Haines City, FL	5.0	3.0	2082	$2,495	$1.20	25d	1	0.22mi
3377 Wakefield Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	25d	1	0.34mi
1053 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,550	$1.27	25d	1	0.44mi
4854 E Hinson Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2403	$3,000	$1.25	5d	1	0.55mi
1717 Frogmore Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	25d	1	0.64mi
833 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1887	$1,950	$1.03	12d	1	0.69mi
432 Summer Grove Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,850	$1.44	25d	1	0.79mi
239 Summerlin Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$2,300	$1.06	25d	1	0.79mi
1138 Foreshore Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,200	$1.27	25d	1	0.80mi
1462 Sea Glass Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,200	$1.01	25d	1	0.82mi
1105 Lexington Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2123	$1,995	$0.94	20d	1	0.89mi
1361 Current Pl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$2,100	$1.29	25d	1	0.90mi
148 Summerlin Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,850	$1.17	16d	1	0.91mi
167 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$2,020	$1.02	20d	1	0.92mi
202 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,905	$0.96	13d	1	0.93mi
117 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2099	$2,085	$0.99	25d	1	1.00mi
851 Folklore Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2290	$2,195	$0.96	5d	1	1.01mi
120 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,020	$1.06	15d	1	1.01mi
621 Sand Pine Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	12d	1	1.06mi
333 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,985	$1.04	13d	1	1.06mi
299 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	25d	1	1.08mi
429 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,990	$1.22	20d	1	1.17mi
1276 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,895	$1.00	13d	1	1.18mi
3139 Cedar Crossing Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,795	$1.19	5d	1	1.21mi
219 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2420	$2,450	$1.01	25d	1	1.21mi
2203 Pigeon Plum Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1887	$2,190	$1.16	12d	1	1.27mi
1950 Pond Pine Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,975	$1.02	25d	1	1.35mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	25d	1	1.35mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	16d	1	1.40mi
662 Fairview Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	4d	1	1.41mi
600 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2267	$2,800	$1.24	12d	1	1.42mi
1313 Tank Trl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,095	$1.44	25d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $319,990 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,990 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,990 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,990 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,990 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,990 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,990 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,990 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,990 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,990 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $319,990 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,990 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,990 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    price $319,990 651-char remark

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    4 bed | 3 bath | 2-bay | 1941 sqft * Closing costs are additional and not included in the USDA 30 year fixed rate 100% financing. Terms and availability of this loan program, and the sales price, are examples only and are subject to change without notice. Loans are subject to credit approval. Restrictions and conditions may apply. USDA loans are subject to income and geographic eligibility criteria. Loan program is available through Inspire Home Loans® | NMLS # 1564276, click here for State Licensing Disclosures with additional information found at NMLS Consumer Access: www. nmlsconsumeraccess.org . ©02/2025 Century Communities, Inc.

18. 2026-05-19
    price $319,990
19. 2026-05-08
    listed $326,990 Active 651-char remark

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    4 bed | 3 bath | 2-bay | 1941 sqft * Closing costs are additional and not included in the USDA 30 year fixed rate 100% financing. Terms and availability of this loan program, and the sales price, are examples only and are subject to change without notice. Loans are subject to credit approval. Restrictions and conditions may apply. USDA loans are subject to income and geographic eligibility criteria. Loan program is available through Inspire Home Loans® | NMLS # 1564276, click here for State Licensing Disclosures with additional information found at NMLS Consumer Access: www. nmlsconsumeraccess.org . ©02/2025 Century Communities, Inc.

20. 2026-05-07
    listed $326,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,944 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,944 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,924
• − Property taxes: −$3,944
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$9,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,320
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $319,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $326,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Listed $326,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid