531 N Decker Ave · Baltimore, MD 21205

$135,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Townhouse public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1915 $141/sqft · 7% below area Est $145k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$15K in downpayment assistance available! Below market interest rate available! AMAZING OPPORTUNITY to own this beautiful home! Up to $15,000 in closing cost assistance available. * This is an owner-occupant only, income restricted property. Buyer must be at or below 50% AMI. This 2BR, 1.5BA home offers a beautiful open floor plan filled with natural light! The upper level has 2 cozy bedrooms, and a modern bath. The main level flows from the living room to the dining area and into the kitchen with stainless appliances and plenty of cabinet space. This is a land trust property. Agents please see disclosures. Hope is NOT the seller to the ultimate homebuyer. Hope is Seller only to Charm City Land Trusts. Hope is selling land and improvements to Charm City Land Trusts. Hope is the developer and has a role in marketing the Affordable Land Trust Housing Agreement homes by virtue of the Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU). “Seller is selling only the Improvements and not the Land. Seller will retain legal title to the Land. Buyer’s title to the Improvements is subject to use, occupancy, and resale restrictions set forth in a recorded Affordable Housing Land Trust Agreement as permitted by Maryland Law, MD Code, Real Property, § 14-501 et seq.

Key facts

• Built 1915
• Listed 124 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.9%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,663/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 966% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $135k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.33%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,504
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -6.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
530 N Curley St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (0%)	2mo	$85,000	$89	87
441 N East Ave	0.13mi	3/1.5 (+1)	976 (+2%)	2mo	$175,000	$179	85
735 N Lakewood Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5 (+1)	970 (+1%)	2mo	$80,000	$82	78
155 N Streeper St	0.27mi	2/2.0	912 (-5%)	0mo	$220,000	$241	77
26 N Decker Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+8%)	2mo	$175,000	$168	68
3534 E Fairmount Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,018 (+6%)	2mo	$86,000	$84	66
629 N Kenwood Ave	0.20mi	2/1.5	1,100 (+15%)	1mo	$76,500	$70	66
20 N Decker Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+8%)	2mo	$149,000	$143	63
415 N Glover St	0.32mi	2/2.5	1,092 (+14%)	2mo	$179,000	$164	56
14 S Curley St	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+14%)	1mo	$269,000	$246	55
3500 E Fairmount Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+14%)	2mo	$107,000	$98	55
2709 E Hoffman St	0.69mi	2/1.0	840 (-12%)	1mo	$115,000	$137	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $11,671
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $82,108
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21205

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.9%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,663 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,938/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $465	-5% $427	+0% $388	+5% $350	+10% $312
Rent	-10% $257	-5% $323	+0% $388	+5% $454	+10% $520
Rate	-1.0pp $456	-0.5pp $423	base $388	+0.5pp $353	+1.0pp $318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
520 N Decker Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	44d	1	0.05mi
203 N Ellwood Ave Unit Main Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	880	$2,200	$2.50	24d	1	0.22mi
531 N Belnord Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,700	$1.55	24d	1	0.24mi
415 N Belnord Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	24d	1	0.26mi
3205 Esther Pl Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	960	$1,850	$1.93	24d	1	0.29mi
2729 Ashland Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	0.32mi
29 N Ellwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1100	$2,395	$2.18	24d	1	0.33mi
415 N Glover St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1092	$1,600	$1.47	24d	1	0.34mi
502 N Glover St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	827	$1,250	$1.51	20d	1	0.34mi
2608 E Fayette St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	15d	1	0.39mi
517 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	845	$1,400	$1.66	5d	1	0.40mi
127 N Glover St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1110	$2,100	$1.89	3d	1	0.42mi
233 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	934	$1,750	$1.87	18d	1	0.43mi
400 N Rose St #1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	588	$1,080	$1.84	44d	1	0.43mi
3344 E Baltimore St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	545	$1,250	$2.29	44d	1	0.44mi
224 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1120	$1,875	$1.67	18d	1	0.45mi
402 N Milton Ave Unit 402B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	950	$1,290	$1.36	44d	1	0.47mi
104 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	936	$2,500	$2.67	44d	1	0.50mi
720 N Port St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	44d	1	0.50mi
437 N Montford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	0.51mi
3413 Leverton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	832	$1,000	$1.20	24d	1	0.52mi
618 N Montford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,468	$1.40	15d	1	0.53mi
618 N Montford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,468	$1.40	44d	1	0.53mi
107 N Port St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	870	$1,995	$2.29	24d	1	0.55mi
2308 Jefferson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	907	$1,450	$1.60	44d	1	0.56mi
1310 N Ellwood Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	22d	1	0.59mi
1310 N Ellwood Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	13d	1	0.59mi
1401 N Potomac St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$1,099	$1.57	18d	1	0.65mi
1323 N Kenwood Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	600	$950	$1.58	44d	1	0.65mi
1323 N Kenwood Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,350	$1.27	24d	1	0.65mi
16 N Bradford St Baltimore, MD	2.0	3.5	930	$2,400	$2.58	5d	1	0.66mi
201 S Conkling St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	740	$1,500	$2.03	2d	2	0.67mi
108 N Madeira St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,900	$1.73	44d	1	0.70mi
712 N Duncan St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,000	$2.00	44d	1	0.72mi
400 S Highland Ave Unit 402 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	44d	1	0.77mi
223 Grundy St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	24d	1	0.80mi
3232 Eastern Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.5	874	$2,260	$2.59	2d	1	0.80mi
400 S Conkling St Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$1,700	$2.43	44d	1	0.80mi
3235 Eastern Ave Unit 2FL Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	552	$1,795	$3.25	5d	1	0.83mi
107 S Collington Ave Unit 2 REAR Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	600	$1,800	$3.00	5d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-02-14
    listed $135,000 Active 1271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1271 chars)

    $15K in downpayment assistance available! Below market interest rate available! AMAZING OPPORTUNITY to own this beautiful home! Up to $15,000 in closing cost assistance available. * This is an owner-occupant only, income restricted property. Buyer must be at or below 50% AMI. This 2BR, 1.5BA home offers a beautiful open floor plan filled with natural light! The upper level has 2 cozy bedrooms, and a modern bath. The main level flows from the living room to the dining area and into the kitchen with stainless appliances and plenty of cabinet space. This is a land trust property. Agents please see disclosures. Hope is NOT the seller to the ultimate homebuyer. Hope is Seller only to Charm City Land Trusts. Hope is selling land and improvements to Charm City Land Trusts. Hope is the developer and has a role in marketing the Affordable Land Trust Housing Agreement homes by virtue of the Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU). “Seller is selling only the Improvements and not the Land. Seller will retain legal title to the Land. Buyer’s title to the Improvements is subject to use, occupancy, and resale restrictions set forth in a recorded Affordable Housing Land Trust Agreement as permitted by Maryland Law, MD Code, Real Property, § 14-501 et seq.

15. 2025-03-18
    soldstatus $66,887
16. 2012-01-26
    historical
17. 2012-01-26
    historical
18. 2011-01-27
    listed Active
19. 2011-01-27
    listed $49,900
20. 2009-12-13
    historical Withdrawn
21. 2009-12-13
    historical
22. 2009-09-18
    price
23. 2009-07-20
    listed Active
24. 2009-07-19
    listed $49,900
25. 2007-06-27
    historical
26. 2007-05-30
    listed
27. 1996-06-21
    soldstatus $12,000
28. 1996-06-14
    historical
29. 1995-09-18
    listed $11,150
30. 1993-01-20
    soldstatus $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,938 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,938 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,938
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,597
• − Management: −$1,597
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$640
• After-tax cash flow: $4,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 13,013
• Household income: $43,176
• Rent vs Own: 63.6% rent · 36.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 966.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 16% White 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.03%
• Current HPI: 244.1345
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.88%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+286.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $66,887 Public Records
• 2012-01-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-01-26 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-01-27 Listed — MRIS
• 2011-01-27 Listed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-12-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-12-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-09-18 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-07-20 Listed — MRIS
• 2009-07-19 Listed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-06-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-05-30 Listed — MRIS
• 1996-06-21 Sold (MLS) $12,000 MRIS
• 1996-06-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 1995-09-18 Listed $11,150 MRIS
• 1993-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,938 · +97.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.