3036 W Water St · Springfield, MO 65802

$135,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1960 7,405 sqft lot Est $139k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is tenant Occupied please do not bother tenants. You must set up an appointment for showings 48 hours in advance. This home is a great opportunity to start your rental portfolio.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($576/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westport Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 384 students, 88% FRL); Westport Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #344 of 391 statewide, top 88%, 433 students, 87% FRL); Central High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 1,464 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 46% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 520 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,080 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.52%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3036 W Water St	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,040 (0%)	1mo	$135,000	$130	100
2940 W Walnut St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-3%)	3mo	$135,000	$134	79
2928 W Chestnut St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	3mo	$119,000	$114	79
2914 W Chestnut St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	3mo	$129,000	$124	79
2916 W Chestnut St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (0%)	3mo	$139,000	$134	74
3121 W Harrison St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,052 (+1%)	1mo	$187,500	$178	72
2634 W Phelps St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,038 (-0%)	3mo	$135,000	$130	70
2919 W Page St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,096 (+5%)	2mo	$176,500	$161	52
1120 N Colgate Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,119 (+8%)	2mo	$210,000	$188	50
2830 W State St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	970 (-7%)	4mo	$164,900	$170	48
2609 W Brower St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,104 (+6%)	4mo	$145,000	$131	45
928 N Glenn Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (+12%)	2mo	$155,000	$134	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-16,818
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,177
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65802

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 520
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,101 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $689/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,040

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $86	+0% $48	+5% $10	+10% $-28
Rent	-10% $-39	-5% $5	+0% $48	+5% $91	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $82	base $48	+0.5pp $13	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
250 N Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1153	$628	$0.54	15d	1	0.18mi
3028 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$850	$0.87	23d	1	0.22mi
3002 W Elm St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,295	$1.15	23d	1	0.30mi
2854 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	945	$995	$1.05	23d	1	0.32mi
547 S Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,175	$1.17	45d	1	0.46mi
922 N Glenn Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	45d	1	0.59mi
2602 W College St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1350	$995	$0.74	15d	1	0.59mi
2541 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1034	$975	$0.94	45d	1	0.72mi
741 N West Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	912	$950	$1.04	45d	1	0.82mi
2412 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,295	$1.03	25d	1	0.84mi
740 N West Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	25d	1	0.85mi
412 S Duke Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,585	$1.13	15d	1	0.91mi
3016 W Hovey St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,350	$1.27	45d	1	0.95mi
1020 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$950	$0.94	25d	1	1.13mi
1152 S Hillcrest Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,300	$1.05	45d	1	1.16mi
2204 W Madison St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	15d	1	1.17mi
1040 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$945	$0.94	15d	1	1.18mi
1740 W Olive St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	736	$1,195	$1.62	15d	1	1.30mi
3031 W Pacific St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,295	$1.28	23d	1	1.31mi
4149 W Burbank St Unit A Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	45d	1	1.39mi
1365 S Scenic Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,550	$1.17	15d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-17
   listed $135,000
2. 2026-04-17
   historical
3. 2019-03-05
   soldstatus
4. 2017-09-20
   soldstatus
5. 2010-11-15
   soldstatus
6. 2005-08-02
   soldstatus
7. 2005-03-07
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $689 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,310 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$620/yr (+$52/mo · 90.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$689
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,057
• − Management: −$1,057
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$422
• After-tax cash flow: $998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 46,739
• Household income: $55,019
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1818.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.72%
• Current HPI: 212.9826
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Delisted — SOMO
• 2026-04-17 Listed $135,000 SOMO
• 2019-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $689 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.