709 Walnut Ave · Bull Shoals, AR 72619

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in Bull Shoals with this 3 bedroom, 2 bath single-level home offering 1,404 sq ft and situated on two lots, providing extra space and flexibility. The home features a functional layout, a bonus room ideal for an office, hobby room, or additional living space, and the convenience of one-level living. Property is in need of repairs and updating and is being offered as an excellent opportunity for an anyone looking to make it their own. Conveniently located close to area amenities, outdoor recreation, and beautiful Bull Shoals Lake.

Key facts

• Two lots
• Outdoor recreation
• Bonus room

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• TWO LOTS
• CLOSE TO AREA AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• BULL SHOALS LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.4% in Bull Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#92 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Flippin School District (rural): math 34% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 238 in AR (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 237 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.70%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,388
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
706 Walnut Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,316 (-6%)	8mo	$212,000	$161	80
724 Betty Jean Ln	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,476 (+5%)	10mo	$234,900	$159	77
721 Lynette Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,284 (-8%)	10mo	$75,000	$58	74
714 Maple Ave	0.04mi	3/3.0	1,300 (-7%)	15mo	$152,500	$117	70
110 Lake Forest Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,502 (+7%)	2mo	$275,000	$183	62
801 Walnut Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	13mo	$197,000	$164	61
126 Winterview	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+10%)	0mo	$530,000	$342	59
1206 Broadway Ave	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,278 (-9%)	11mo	$167,500	$131	58
808 Betty Jean Ln	0.15mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,222 (-13%)	12mo	$179,900	$147	55
706 Broadway Ave	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,234 (-12%)	15mo	$134,500	$109	54
1007 Lakeshore Rd	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,316 (-6%)	16mo	$100,000	$76	49
404 Lakeshore Rd	0.43mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-11%)	7mo	$120,000	$96	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,016
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $19,973
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72619

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 554-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $85,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$996
• − Management: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$365
• After-tax cash flow: $2,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flippin School District
• NCES district ID: 0506150
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $35,855
• Composite: 26.54/100
• National rank: #7194
• State rank: #143 of 238 in AR

Livability — Bull Shoals

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #10104

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bull Shoals, AR
• City population: 1,671
• Population (ZIP): 1,671

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,979 people
• By 2030: 14,153 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 12,546 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 11,386 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 9,663 · -35.5%
• By 2100: 8,248 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.1% · R 79.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -29.9pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.7 2016: R+55.1 2012: R+39.1 2008: R+29.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.66%
• Current HPI: 168.1902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B