2809 Reservation Rd · Ashley Heights, NC 28315

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1979 3.78 ac lot Est $143k · 13% under ↓ 38% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Building Equity. .. Buy Today: Profit for Tomorrow! Great opportunity whether your an investor or buyer looking for a place to call home. Being sold as is and on auction only at Xome.com. The subject is occupied and no showing will be allowed. Great opportunity if you looking for a project or have have sweat to put this property back together! Needs work, but upside is tremendous. Some fire damage, but worth the effort. Don't miss out on this great property with endless possibilities!

Key facts

• 3.78 acre lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $661 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.2% in Ashley Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#703 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.65%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,463
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3156 Reservation Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+8%)	6mo	$156,000	$97	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $16,465
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $47,814
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28315

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Rents YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,819 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $982

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2025-10-21
   listed $200,000 Active
4. 2025-10-21
   listed $200,000 Active
5. 2025-10-21
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$203/yr (+$17/mo · 24.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $6,247
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,499
• After-tax cash flow: $6,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Ashley Heights

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #703
• US rank: #25492

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Moore County · 75,247 people
• Metro: Pinehurst-Southern Pines, NC
• Population (ZIP): 14,084
• Household income: $77,418
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 132.0

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Vietnam, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.02%
• Current HPI: 197.0027
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.10%
• Metro: Pinehurst-Southern Pines, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-37.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $125,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $200,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $200,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $822 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.