14917 Emerson Fld · Balm, FL 33598

$340,700

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Family room
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS
• OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $337,900

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Spec new-construction home — Plan: Harrisburg; Active listing
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Address: 14917 Emerson Fld, Wimauma, FL 33598; Living area approximately 1,817

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (including rooms on varying levels)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open-plan living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not specified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $341k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $280,291 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.76%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-62,904
• Equity at exit: $60,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-89,607
• Equity at exit: $46,937

Cash invested: $95,396 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,803 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$426 /mo · $5,110/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,980

Max offer price $320,413

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $-22	+0% $-140	+5% $-258	+10% $-376
Rent	-10% $-362	-5% $-251	+0% $-140	+5% $-29	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $31	-0.5pp $-54	base $-140	+0.5pp $-228	+1.0pp $-318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,175
• Closing costs: $10,221
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15007 Coltman Hill Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,550	$1.33	26d	1	0.15mi
13181 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	26d	1	0.74mi
13095 Calcite Blue Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,300	$1.19	19d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $340,700 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $340,700 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,700 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $340,700 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $338,100 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $338,100 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $337,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 331-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   listed $337,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,084
• − Property taxes: −$5,110
• − Insurance: −$1,704
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,691
• − Management: −$2,691
• − Depreciation: −$9,911
• Taxable loss: −$7,556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,814
• After-tax cash flow: $131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value.
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can increase the home's appeal and value.
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can improve convenience and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can improve convenience and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 32,820
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B