2107 Colleen Dr #39 · Rosamond, CA 93560

$179,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,707 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2007 4,000 sqft lot Est $152k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Space 39 at Desert Sands Mobile Home Park, a beautifully maintained home located in the desirable gated community of Rosamond. This spacious 1,950 sq ft home, built in 2007, offers an open and inviting floor plan perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. As you enter, you're greeted by a bright, open layout that flows seamlessly into the oversized kitchen, featuring abundant cabinet space, all appliances included, and a convenient wet bar, ideal for hosting guests or everyday functionality. The generously sized rooms provide comfort and flexibility, while the home's clean, well kept condition reflects true pride of ownership. A cozy fireplace adds warmth and charm to the l

Key facts

• Gated community
• Wet bar
• Oversized kitchen

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OVERSIZED KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• WET BAR
• COZY FIREPLACE
• PEACEFUL COMMUNITY SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: APN 473-210-39; Lot size reported as 4,000 (unit recorded as acres in source metadata)
• HOA & community: Located in Desert Rose mobile home park; Space rent listed (new space rent): $768.42; Park manager: Vanessa (phone available)

Exterior

• Utilities: Utilities available
• Home design: Manufactured home (mobile home) located in a park; Designed for all ages; Located in space/lot number 39; Entry/manufacture date: June 11, 2007; Manufacturer: Fleetwood Homes CA, model 0643K, trade name VOGUE
• Construction: Composition shingle roof; Skirted exterior; Width: 15 ft, Length: 66 ft; Serial numbers: CAFL708A31740V012 and CAFL708B31740V012
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Shed; Park includes a pool and clubhouse/rec room

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Gas range and oven
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Gas range and oven; Family room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 4.3% in Rosamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,178 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Southern Kern Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #387 of 517 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 461 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.06%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,923
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2024 Colleen Dr #52	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-2%)	11mo	$150,000	$89	79
2017 Windcurrent Dr #126	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (+4%)	0mo	$140,000	$79	76
2000 Windflow Dr #76	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,762 (+3%)	1mo	$185,000	$105	73
1550 W 20th St #18	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-6%)	5mo	$160,000	$100	66
1550 20th W	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-6%)	5mo	$175,000	$109	66
2021 Windharp #30	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,536 (-10%)	1mo	$108,000	$70	65
1550 W 20th St #25	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+10%)	1mo	$170,000	$90	63
2117 Windflower Dr #108	0.24mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+8%)	9mo	$133,000	$72	62
2013 Windbreak Dr #4	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+8%)	6mo	$150,000	$81	62
1550 20th St W #97	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-6%)	12mo	$162,000	$101	60
2016 Windbreak Dr #22	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+8%)	10mo	$163,000	$88	60
1550 20th St W #70	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (-13%)	10mo	$120,000	$80	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $80,393
• Equity at exit: $74,933

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.03×
• Total profit: $203,202
• Equity at exit: $111,047

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93560

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,759 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,813/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $1,010

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,112	-5% $1,061	+0% $1,010	+5% $959	+10% $908
Rent	-10% $792	-5% $901	+0% $1,010	+5% $1,119	+10% $1,228
Rate	-1.0pp $1,101	-0.5pp $1,056	base $1,010	+0.5pp $963	+1.0pp $916

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1943 Pengilley Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,600	$1.89	0d	1	0.41mi
1953 Marie Ave Apt A Rosamond, CA	4.0	3.0	1753	$2,550	$1.45	45d	1	0.47mi
1953 Marie Ave Apt A Rosamond, CA	4.0	3.0	1753	$2,550	$1.45	4d	1	0.47mi
2051 Candice Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,395	$1.78	16d	1	0.81mi
3017 Via Bella Rosa Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,800	$1.54	45d	1	1.03mi
3124 Via Bella Rosa Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1809	$3,200	$1.77	45d	1	1.11mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1475	$2,000	$1.36	11d	1	1.12mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	0d	1	1.12mi
3356 Firebush Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,550	$1.58	21d	1	1.32mi
3424 Brabham Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1364	$2,150	$1.58	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   price $179,900
3. 2026-01-16
   price $189,900
4. 2025-12-17
   listed $199,900 Active
5. 2015-03-28
   historical
6. 2015-03-27
   historical
7. 2015-03-27
   historical
8. 2009-04-06
   listed $45,000
9. 2007-02-09
   listed $90,000
10. 2007-02-08
    historical
11. 2006-08-07
    listed $110,000
12. 2006-08-07
    listed $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,813 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,813 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,813
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,648
• − Management: −$2,648
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $9,785
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,348
• After-tax cash flow: $9,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Kern Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637620
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,523
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8093
• State rank: #387 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rosamond

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1178
• US rank: #25952

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosamond, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 22,119
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 22,119
• Household income: $77,431
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 425.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 32% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• Current HPI: 403.7206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+63.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $179,900 AVMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $189,900 AVMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $199,900 AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2009-04-06 Listed $45,000 AVMLS
• 2007-02-09 Listed $90,000 AVMLS
• 2007-02-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-08-07 Listed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2006-08-07 Listed $110,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,813 · +38.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.