105 Prospect St · Simpson, PA 18407

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 1912 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property in poor condition, not currently livable.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1912
• Listed 13 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $630 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#844 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Carbondale Area SD (suburban): math 15% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #480 of 539 in PA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 251 units permitted in Lackawanna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lackawanna County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $40k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $40,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.47%
• DSCR: 4.00
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,104
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
59 Prospect St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,038 (+5%)	20mo	$164,000	$158	64
33 Railroad St	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,113 (+13%)	19mo	$182,000	$164	54
8 John St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-8%)	12mo	$130,000	$143	49
20 Railroad St	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,127 (+14%)	22mo	$40,000	$35	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $33,645
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.23×
• Total profit: $81,015
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18407

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,147 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
418 N Main St Unit 1B Simpson, PA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,175	$1.12	43d	1	0.23mi
35 Rittenhouse St Unit 1st floor Carbondale, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	43d	1	0.26mi
540 N Main St Simpson, PA	2.0	1.0	639	$1,200	$1.88	13d	1	0.35mi
85 Belmont St Carbondale, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	13d	1	0.66mi
37 Green St Carbondale, PA	3.0	1.0	707	$1,375	$1.94	13d	1	1.04mi
83 Spring St Carbondale, PA	2.0	1.0	1015	$1,650	$1.63	43d	1	1.14mi
109 Salem Ave Unit 1Fl Carbondale, PA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,300	$1.35	13d	1	1.16mi
4 Apple Ave Apt 4 Carbondale, PA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,114	$1.31	21d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-09
   listed $40,000 Active
3. 1998-05-14
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,101
• − Management: −$1,101
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $7,358
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,766
• After-tax cash flow: $5,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carbondale Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4204980
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $35,070
• Composite: 19.73/100
• National rank: #8714
• State rank: #480 of 539 in PA

Livability — Simpson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #844
• US rank: #8821

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Simpson, PA
• County: Lackawanna County · 134,448 people
• Metro: Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,445
• Household income: $59,652
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 430.0

Population outlook (Lackawanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,652 people
• By 2030: 208,623 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 203,980 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 201,069 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 205,026 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 210,851 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Scotch-Irish 3% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lackawanna

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 48.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.0pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+3.4 2012: D+27.4 2008: D+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.46%
• Current HPI: 140.1227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-09 Listed $40,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 1998-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $10,239 · +495.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.