769 Sierra Rdg · Lavon, TX 75166

$319,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,975 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,000 sqft lot 2-car garage $162/sqft · 10% below area Est $354k · 10% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Meet the Harrison, a three bedroom, two bathroom home blending cozy living with modern touches. A spacious primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en-suite bath is complemented by two secondary bedrooms, perfect for guests. The large family room opens to a contemporary kitchen, ideal for both relaxed weekends and casual entertaining.

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nesmith El (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 768 students, 44% FRL); Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 931 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $237,636 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.20%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,358
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -8.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
733 Ivy Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,975 (0%)	2mo	$324,990	$165	95
777 Sierra Rdg	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (-9%)	1mo	$314,990	$176	78
953 Dahlia Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,071 (+5%)	4mo	$314,990	$152	76
974 Olive Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (-9%)	2mo	$314,990	$176	73
756 Wellington Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,827 (-8%)	3mo	$295,000	$161	72
411 Epiphany Ln	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,935 (-2%)	3mo	$348,990	$180	69
436 Epiphany Ln	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,014 (+2%)	1mo	$346,990	$172	68
865 River Ln	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,068 (+5%)	4mo	$317,990	$154	64
435 Epiphany Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (-7%)	1mo	$307,990	$167	62
416 Epiphany Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (-7%)	4mo	$309,990	$168	60
635 Sky Muse Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,133 (+8%)	1mo	$355,990	$167	58
525 Epiphany Ln	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,133 (+8%)	4mo	$321,990	$151	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-76,498
• Equity at exit: $47,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-98,158
• Equity at exit: $27,667

Cash invested: $89,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 108 active · 52 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $342,740 ($173/sqft)
• Median days on market: 40 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 931
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,376 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,868

Max offer price $263,838

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-167	-5% $-277	+0% $-388	+5% $-499	+10% $-609
Rent	-10% $-576	-5% $-482	+0% $-388	+5% $-294	+10% $-200
Rate	-1.0pp $-227	-0.5pp $-307	base $-388	+0.5pp $-471	+1.0pp $-555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,998
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
986 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2131	$2,350	$1.10	63d	1	0.10mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,549	$1.57	59d	1	0.10mi
718 Moonlight Pl , TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,595	$1.15	139d	1	0.15mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	35d	1	0.16mi
518 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	76d	1	0.18mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	111d	1	0.18mi
551 London Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,195	$1.05	90d	1	0.18mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	103d	1	0.18mi
545 London Dr Unit 545LD Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2406	$2,295	$0.95	111d	1	0.18mi
500 London Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2406	$2,295	$0.95	7d	1	0.19mi
527 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$2,000	$1.26	20d	1	0.20mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	139d	1	0.20mi
592 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,195	$1.05	139d	1	0.21mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	139d	1	0.21mi
1244 Coneflower Pl Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2518	$2,900	$1.15	84d	1	0.21mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	139d	1	0.22mi
478 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,895	$1.16	12d	1	0.23mi
724 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,000	$1.11	3d	1	0.23mi
788 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,779	$1.48	0d	1	0.23mi
907 Hazel Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2536	$2,550	$1.01	30d	1	0.24mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,900	$1.33	139d	1	0.24mi
786 Wilshire Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,995	$1.06	20d	1	0.24mi
492 Crestridge Dr Unit 492CD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,100	$1.19	20d	1	0.25mi
776 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1591	$1,850	$1.16	28d	1	0.25mi
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,850	$1.27	139d	1	0.26mi
791 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,750	$1.46	0d	1	0.26mi
471 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	59d	1	0.26mi
783 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,975	$1.35	12d	1	0.27mi
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,000	$1.09	108d	1	0.27mi
746 Wilshire Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,600	$1.31	18d	1	0.29mi
468 Crestridge Dr Unit 468CD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$2,000	$1.26	12d	1	0.29mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	139d	1	0.29mi
767 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2401	$2,095	$0.87	5d	1	0.29mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	102d	1	0.29mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	108d	1	0.29mi
752 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,995	$1.37	20d	1	0.30mi
739 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,950	$1.04	139d	1	0.30mi
745 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1591	$1,850	$1.16	4d	1	0.31mi
794 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,950	$1.04	12d	1	0.31mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	98d	1	0.31mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include pool, park, playground, greenbelt, sidewalks and other amenities
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (annual fee)HOA fee covers insurance, grounds maintenance, and managementHOA management: Neighborhood Management, Inc

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (side-by-side)2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerCurbs and sidewalksOther utilities available
• Home design: Single family residenceOne-storyNot attached to another propertyLocated in the Trails of Lavon subdivisionNew construction (incomplete)
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick, rock/stone, and siding constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patioGuttersExterior lightingGray water systemWood backyard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktopElectric ovenMicrowaveDisposalPantryTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplanPantryWalk-in closet(s)Cable TV availableOther
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer areaWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $319,990 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $319,990 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $319,990 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $319,990 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $319,990 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $319,990 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $319,990 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   pricedays on market $319,990 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $324,990 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $324,990 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $324,990 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $324,990 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $324,990 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $324,990 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $324,990 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $324,990 Active 98 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $324,990 Active 97 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $324,990 Active 96 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $324,990 Active 95 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $324,990 Active 94 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $324,990 Active 93 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $324,990 Active 92 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $324,990 Active 91 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $324,990 Active 90 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $324,990 Active 89 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $324,990 Active 88 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $324,990 Active 87 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $324,990 Active 86 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $324,990 Active 85 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $324,990 Active 84 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 83 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $324,990 Active 82 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $324,990 Active 81 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $324,990 Active 80 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $324,990 Active 79 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $324,990 Active 78 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $324,990 Active 76 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $324,990 Active 75 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $324,990 Active 74 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $324,990 Active 73 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $324,990 Active 70 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $324,990 Active 68 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $324,990 Active 67 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $324,990 Active 65 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $324,990 Active 63 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $324,990 Active 62 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $324,990 Active 61 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $324,990 Active 60 DOM
50. 2026-07-20
    days on market $324,990 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,924
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,281
• − Management: −$2,281
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$10,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,479
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from landscaping and curb appeal improvements, smart home features, and fresh paint to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can be a selling point for potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home feel more inviting and can be a selling point for potential buyers or renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Nesmith El D- TX #1,097/4,322 Nat'l #15,585/41,679 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lavon, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include pool, park, playground, greenbelt, sidewalks and other amenities
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (annual fee)HOA fee covers insurance, grounds maintenance, and managementHOA management: Neighborhood Management, Inc

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (side-by-side)2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerCurbs and sidewalksOther utilities available
• Home design: Single family residenceOne-storyNot attached to another propertyLocated in the Trails of Lavon subdivisionNew construction (incomplete)
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick, rock/stone, and siding constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patioGuttersExterior lightingGray water systemWood backyard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktopElectric ovenMicrowaveDisposalPantryTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplanPantryWalk-in closet(s)Cable TV availableOther
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer areaWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility room

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $324,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $324,990 Zillow