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769 Sierra Rdg
D- Composite 38.13
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +11.3/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.7/30.0
  • Condition / age +5.0/5.0
  • Schools +4.1/10.0
  • Livability +3.3/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • DSCR +1.8/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$324,990

769 Sierra Rdg · Lavon, TX 75166
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,975 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,000 sqft lot 2-car garage $165/sqft · 8% below area Est $355k · 8% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Meet the Harrison, a three bedroom, two bathroom home blending cozy living with modern touches. A spacious primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en-suite bath is complemented by two secondary bedrooms, perfect for guests. The large family room opens to a contemporary kitchen, ideal for both relaxed weekends and casual entertaining.

Key facts

  • 6,000 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots
  • Community pool

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-376 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (16.8% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (25.1% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $243k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Nesmith El (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 768 students, 44% FRL); Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL).
  • Market conditions: 750 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Recommended offer $243,473 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.75%
Cap rate
4.90%
Cash-on-cash
-4.96%
DSCR
0.78
GRM
11.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$354,760
List price
$324,990
Delta
-8.39%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
733 Ivy Trl 0.06mi 3/2.0 1,975 (0%) 1mo $324,990 $165 97
671 Sierra Rdg 0.11mi 3/2.0 1,965 (-0%) 3mo $317,990 $162 91
953 Dahlia Dr 0.13mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,071 (+5%) 2mo $314,990 $152 77
974 Olive Dr 0.10mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,791 (-9%) 1mo $314,990 $176 74
756 Wellington Dr 0.28mi 3/2.0 1,827 (-8%) 2mo $295,000 $161 73
685 Sierra Rdg 0.10mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,131 (+8%) 3mo $349,490 $164 71
653 Sierra Rdg 0.13mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,791 (-9%) 4mo $311,990 $174 70
411 Epiphany Ln 0.43mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,935 (-2%) 2mo $348,990 $180 70
865 River Ln 0.39mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,068 (+5%) 2mo $317,990 $154 65
657 Chipper Trl 0.14mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,233 (+13%) 4mo $329,990 $148 62
416 Epiphany Ln 0.45mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,845 (-7%) 2mo $309,990 $168 61
525 Epiphany Ln 0.43mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,133 (+8%) 2mo $321,990 $151 58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-24.7%
Equity multiple
0.16×
Total profit
$-76,571
Equity at exit
$48,457
10-year hold
IRR
-20.3%
Equity multiple
-0.07×
Total profit
$-97,269
Equity at exit
$28,099

Cash invested: $90,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
60 active · 43 under contract
Months of supply
4.1 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$380,850 ($187/sqft)
Median days on market
127 d
This list price
25% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-3.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

Home prices YoY
-9.9%
Active inventory
750
Price-to-rent
11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,435 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,704
Tax est. 1.5%
$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
Insurance
$135
HOA
$54
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$511
Net cashflow
$-376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,911
Max offer price $270,512
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-152 -5% $-264 +0% $-376 +5% $-489 +10% $-601
Rent -10% $-569 -5% $-473 +0% $-376 +5% $-280 +10% $-184
Rate -1.0pp $-213 -0.5pp $-294 base $-376 +0.5pp $-461 +1.0pp $-546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$81,248
Closing costs
$9,750
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
986 Olive Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 3.0 2131 $2,350 $1.10 17d 1 0.10mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1628 $2,549 $1.57 12d 1 0.10mi
718 Moonlight Pl , TX 4.0 3.0 2260 $2,595 $1.15 93d 1 0.15mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1589 $1,950 $1.23 64d 1 0.16mi
518 London Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1769 $2,000 $1.13 30d 1 0.18mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1589 $1,950 $1.23 64d 1 0.18mi
551 London Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 2.5 2095 $2,195 $1.05 43d 1 0.18mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1769 $2,000 $1.13 56d 1 0.18mi
545 London Dr Unit 545LD Lavon, TX 4.0 2.0 2406 $2,295 $0.95 64d 1 0.18mi
527 London Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1589 $1,950 $1.23 30d 1 0.20mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 2.0 1827 $2,300 $1.26 93d 1 0.20mi
592 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 2.5 2095 $2,195 $1.05 93d 1 0.21mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1769 $2,000 $1.13 93d 1 0.21mi
1244 Coneflower Pl Lavon, TX 4.0 3.0 2518 $2,900 $1.15 38d 1 0.21mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1634 $1,850 $1.13 93d 1 0.22mi
788 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 2.0 1884 $3,399 $1.80 0d 1 0.23mi
907 Hazel Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 3.5 2536 $2,750 $1.08 10d 1 0.24mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1429 $1,900 $1.33 93d 1 0.24mi
776 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1591 $1,950 $1.23 41d 1 0.25mi
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1459 $1,850 $1.27 93d 1 0.26mi
471 London Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1769 $2,000 $1.13 12d 1 0.26mi
783 Camden Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1459 $2,049 $1.40 30d 1 0.27mi
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1827 $2,000 $1.09 62d 1 0.27mi
468 Crestridge Dr Unit 468CD Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1589 $1,950 $1.23 12d 1 0.29mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 2.0 1779 $3,000 $1.69 93d 1 0.29mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1589 $1,849 $1.16 55d 1 0.29mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1636 $1,750 $1.07 62d 1 0.29mi
739 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 2.0 1884 $1,950 $1.04 93d 1 0.30mi
794 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 2.0 1884 $2,350 $1.25 26d 1 0.31mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1802 $6,200 $3.44 52d 1 0.31mi
736 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 2.0 1884 $2,150 $1.14 4d 1 0.32mi
786 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1589 $1,950 $1.23 17d 1 0.32mi
770 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 2.5 2542 $2,375 $0.93 0d 1 0.34mi
711 Camden Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 2.0 1884 $2,350 $1.25 26d 1 0.36mi
902 Tulip TRL Lavon, TX 4.0 2.5 2087 $2,500 $1.20 93d 1 0.37mi
731 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 3.5 2542 $2,350 $0.92 17d 1 0.37mi
1233 Wolfsbane Dr Lavon, TX 4.0 2.5 2328 $2,700 $1.16 39d 1 0.38mi
854 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX 4.0 2.5 2270 $3,300 $1.45 10d 1 0.39mi
865 River Ln Lavon, TX 4.0 2.5 2068 $2,400 $1.16 54d 1 0.40mi
858 River Ln Lavon, TX 3.0 2.0 1504 $2,200 $1.46 66d 1 0.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Community features include pool, park, playground, greenbelt, sidewalks and other amenities
Financial info
Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
HOA & community
Mandatory HOA (annual fee)HOA fee covers insurance, grounds maintenance, and managementHOA management: Neighborhood Management, Inc

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (side-by-side)2 covered parking spaces
Security
Smoke detector(s)Carbon monoxide detector(s)
Utilities
City waterCity sewerCurbs and sidewalksOther utilities available
Home design
Single family residenceOne-storyNot attached to another propertyLocated in the Trails of Lavon subdivisionNew construction (incomplete)
Construction
Built in 2026Brick, rock/stone, and siding constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features
Covered patioGuttersExterior lightingGray water systemWood backyard fencing

Interior

Kitchen
Gas cooktopElectric ovenMicrowaveDisposalPantryTankless water heater
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms (all on the main level)Primary bedroom on the main level
Flooring
CarpetLaminateTile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
Interior features
Open floorplanPantryWalk-in closet(s)Cable TV availableOther
Laundry & utility
Full-size washer/dryer areaWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility room

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $324,990 Active 78 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $324,990 Active 76 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $324,990 Active 75 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $324,990 Active 74 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $324,990 Active 73 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $324,990 Active 70 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $324,990 Active 68 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $324,990 Active 67 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on market $324,990 Active 65 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $324,990 Active 63 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $324,990 Active 62 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $324,990 Active 61 DOM
  13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $324,990 Active 60 DOM
  14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $324,990 Active 59 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $324,990 Active 57 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $324,990 Active 56 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $324,990 Active 55 DOM
  18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $324,990 Active 54 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $324,990 Active 53 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 52 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 51 DOM
  22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $324,990 Active 50 DOM
  23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $324,990 Active 49 DOM
  24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $324,990 Active 48 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $324,990 Active 46 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $324,990 Active 45 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $324,990 Active 44 DOM
  28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $324,990 Active 43 DOM
  29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $324,990 Active 42 DOM
  30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $324,990 Active 41 DOM
  31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $324,990 Active 40 DOM
  32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $324,990 Active 39 DOM
  33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $324,990 Active 38 DOM
  34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $324,990 Active 37 DOM
  35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $324,990 Active 36 DOM
  36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $324,990 Active 35 DOM
  37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $324,990 Active 33 DOM
  38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $324,990 Active 31 DOM
  39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $324,990 Active 30 DOM
  40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $324,990 Active 27 DOM
  41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $324,990 Active 26 DOM
  42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $324,990 Active 25 DOM
  43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $324,990 Active 24 DOM
  44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 22 DOM
  45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 21 DOM
  46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $324,990 Active 18 DOM
  47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $324,990 Active 17 DOM
  48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,990 Active 16 DOM
  49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $324,990 Active 13 DOM
  50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,990 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$29,217
− Mortgage interest
−$18,204
− Property taxes
−$4,875
− Insurance
−$1,625
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,337
− Management
−$2,337
− HOA
−$648
− Depreciation
−$9,454
Taxable loss
−$10,264
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,463
After-tax cash flow
$-2,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from landscaping and curb appeal improvements, smart home features, and fresh paint to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
  • Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can be a selling point for potential buyers or renters.
  • Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home feel more inviting and can be a selling point for potential buyers or renters.
F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Nesmith El D- TX #1,097/4,322 Nat'l #15,585/41,679 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Community ISD
NCES district ID
4814850
Math proficiency
30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency
38% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income
$71,841
Composite
31.58/100
National rank
#5951
State rank
#479 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

Score
66/100
State rank
#588
US rank
#11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Lavon, TX
County
Collin County · 1,210,074 people
City population
6,989
Metro
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP)
6,989
Household income
$132,101
Rent vs Own
9.1% rent · 90.9% own

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,210,074 people
By 2030
1,358,201 · +12.2%
By 2040
1,654,061 · +36.7%
By 2050
1,937,359 · +60.1%
By 2075
2,567,039 · +112.1%
By 2100
2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity
White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
Common ancestry
Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born
8% · Canada
Languages at home
84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

2024 margin
R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+0.0% since first listed
2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-22 Listed $324,990 NTREIS
  • 2026-05-22 Listed $324,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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