Aspen Plan · Pearland, TX 77581

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 826 Days on market

Excellent condition $850/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ntroducing The Aspen!! If you're looking for luxury living at an affordable price, this is the home for you. This move in ready home comes with brand-new stainless-steel appliances, front and back deck, an 8x10 storage shed, full landscaping package, 10-year structural warranty, and access to all of the community amenities! Residents here at The Landing at Pearland are allowed to extend their decks, add an awning or carport, add a fence, or even extended their shed or driveway if they please! You will love the cozy feel of the Aspen model, come check it out today!! Land is leased, not owned.

Key facts

• Listed 825 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $100k (23.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 826 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,866 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 826 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.85%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-33,835
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-44,725
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77581

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$850
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,212

Max offer price $99,866

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2900 Pearland Pkwy Pearland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,317	$2.33	5d	12	0.15mi
2918 Pearland Pkwy Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,580	$1.50	43d	1	0.32mi
2502 Alexander Ln Pearland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$1,399	$1.67	1d	13	0.40mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 2935 Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,119	$1.55	2d	1	0.47mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 2959 Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	890	$1,331	$1.50	2d	1	0.47mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 424 Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	890	$1,339	$1.50	5d	1	0.47mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 3047 Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,127	$1.56	17d	1	0.47mi
2902 Whispering Winds Dr Unit 2047 Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	890	$1,374	$1.54	10d	1	0.47mi
3196 John Lizer Rd Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,934	$1.46	11d	1	0.49mi
2525 Barry Rose Rd Pearland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,679	$1.92	12d	10	0.55mi
2691 Old Alvin Rd Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	924	$1,445	$1.56	43d	1	0.59mi
2317 Parkview Dr Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,450	$0.82	21d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $850 · $10,200/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 826 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 825 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 824 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 823 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 821 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 817 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 816 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 815 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,900 Active 812 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 811 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 810 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 809 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 808 DOM
14. 2024-08-02
    status Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    ntroducing The Aspen!! If you're looking for luxury living at an affordable price, this is the home for you. This move in ready home comes with brand-new stainless-steel appliances, front and back deck, an 8x10 storage shed, full landscaping package, 10-year structural warranty, and access to all of the community amenities! Residents here at The Landing at Pearland are allowed to extend their decks, add an awning or carport, add a fence, or even extended their shed or driveway if they please! You will love the cozy feel of the Aspen model, come check it out today!! Land is leased, not owned.

15. 2024-07-23
    historical 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    ntroducing The Aspen!! If you're looking for luxury living at an affordable price, this is the home for you. This move in ready home comes with brand-new stainless-steel appliances, front and back deck, an 8x10 storage shed, full landscaping package, 10-year structural warranty, and access to all of the community amenities! Residents here at The Landing at Pearland are allowed to extend their decks, add an awning or carport, add a fence, or even extended their shed or driveway if they please! You will love the cozy feel of the Aspen model, come check it out today!! Land is leased, not owned.

16. 2024-03-05
    listed $129,900 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    ntroducing The Aspen!! If you're looking for luxury living at an affordable price, this is the home for you. This move in ready home comes with brand-new stainless-steel appliances, front and back deck, an 8x10 storage shed, full landscaping package, 10-year structural warranty, and access to all of the community amenities! Residents here at The Landing at Pearland are allowed to extend their decks, add an awning or carport, add a fence, or even extended their shed or driveway if they please! You will love the cozy feel of the Aspen model, come check it out today!! Land is leased, not owned.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − HOA: −$10,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$4,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,008
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates like landscaping and fresh paint to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing
• Both Kitchen appliances — Stainless steel appliances can increase appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Stainless steel appliances can increase appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearland, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,332
• Household income: $111,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 826.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.56%
• Current HPI: 244.7942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-07-23 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-05 Listed $129,900 Zillow