27224 W Thirteenth Ave · Hilliard, FL 32046

$222,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 996 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2002 0.43 ac lot Est $222k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a spacious family room and a separate kitchen with dining area. The primary bedroom offers a private bathroom for added comfort. Nestled on a corner lot in a peaceful, friendly neighborhood, the large fenced backyard provides a safe space for pets and play. Enjoy easy walking access to nearby schools and quick drives to shopping and services. This affordable, well-kept home is perfect for first-time buyers or investors seeking steady rental income. Embrace simple, relaxed living in a warm community--schedule your tour today! Some photos may be virtually staged

Key facts

• Separate kitchen
• Private bathroom
• Corner lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• SEPARATE KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• CORNER LOT
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• EASY WALKING ACCESS TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.0% in Hilliard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#382 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hilliard Elementary School (math 90% / reading 75%, grade A+, #70 of 2,144 statewide, top 4%, 700 students, 59% FRL); Hilliard Middle-Senior High (math 69% / reading 60%, grade B-, #78 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 760 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 40% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $190k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,254 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,108
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27224 W Thirteenth Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	996 (0%)	1mo	$222,000	$223	99
27293 W Thirteenth Ave	0.04mi	3/2.0	996 (0%)	11mo	$207,500	$208	89
361927 Pine St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+12%)	2mo	$299,900	$268	52
27382 W West 13th Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+13%)	24mo	$245,000	$217	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $114,957
• Equity at exit: $199,995

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.52×
• Total profit: $342,906
• Equity at exit: $431,297

Cash invested: $62,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32046

• Home prices YoY: 22.6%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $738/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,669

Max offer price $205,801

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $34	-5% $-29	+0% $-92	+5% $-155	+10% $-217
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-153	+0% $-92	+5% $-30	+10% $31
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-35	base $-92	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,500
• Closing costs: $6,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   listed $222,000 Active
3. 2026-03-30
   soldstatus $190,100
4. 2002-05-23
   soldstatus $74,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $738 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,843 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,104/yr (+$92/mo · 149.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,435
• − Property taxes: −$738
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − Depreciation: −$6,458
• Taxable loss: −$5,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,222
• After-tax cash flow: $122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hilliard

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #6750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hilliard, FL
• City population: 11,259
• Population (ZIP): 11,259

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 6% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 71.96%
• Current HPI: 390.7618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+199.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $222,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $190,100 Public Records
• 2002-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $74,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $738 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.