475 Thrush Dr #17 · Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 2025 Fair condition Est $91k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 888 sq ft of bright, single-level living with a front living room layout. The all-new kitchen features stainless steel appliances throughout — self-cleaning gas range, dishwasher, built-in microwave, and a 22 cu. ft. side-by-side refrigerator with ice and water — paired with white glaze cabinetry and a garbage disposal. Built for mountain living with energy-efficient 2x6 exterior walls, R-19 insulation, and a Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) fire-resistant package including tempered glass and fire-rated venting. A porch deck adds outdoor space to take in the clean mountain air and surrounding pines. Located in Trails End, a 55+ age-

Key facts

• R-19 insulation
• Porch deck
• All-new kitchen

Tags

• ALL-NEW KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• R-19 INSULATION
• FIRE-RESISTANT PACKAGE
• PORCH DECK
• MINUTES FROM THE VILLAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with size limit; dogs and cats OK
• Financial info: Land lease of $875 per month (park)
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community; Trails End Mobile Home Park; Community features: biking, hiking, fishing, mountainous setting, street lighting, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Has parking
• Security: Fire sprinklers
• Utilities: Standard electric service; Natural gas connected; Public/district water; Sewer connected (public sewer); Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (mobile home remains); Single-story; Turnkey condition; Entry at ground level with steps; Mobile home approx. 14' x 62'
• Construction: Permanent foundation on concrete slab; Year built source: Builder
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch at front of home; Wood fencing; Lot is level/flat; Across the road from a lake/ocean (view); Private paved road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Energy Star appliances; Gas range; Self-cleaning oven; Range/stove hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Water heater unit; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; All bedrooms on the main floor; Main floor bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with bathtub and shower-in-tub; Exhaust fan(s)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Energy Star heating
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Recessed lighting; Laminate counters; Energy Star doors; Fire sprinklers
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $764 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 528 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.09%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,576
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
475 Thrush Dr #31	0.52mi	2/1.0	848 (-4%)	15mo	$22,000	$26	56
475 Thrush Dr #20	0.51mi	2/2.0	860 (-3%)	22mo	$88,000	$102	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $27,301
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $65,812
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92315

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 528
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,834 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $764

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41935 Switzerland Dr #58 Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	3.0	1053	$1,750	$1.66	24d	1	0.40mi
365 Jeffries Rd Unit C Big Bear Lake, CA	1.0	1.5	780	$1,675	$2.15	44d	1	0.79mi
784 Berkley Ln Unit 4 Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	18d	1	0.80mi
933 Cameron Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,500	$2.94	3d	1	1.16mi
42651 Falcon Ave Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	667	$1,750	$2.62	5d	1	1.23mi
42814 Willow Ave Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	798	$1,995	$2.50	17d	1	1.43mi
40504 Big Bear Blvd Big Bear Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,600	$2.29	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 687-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥83°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $8,078
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,939
• After-tax cash flow: $7,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and maintenance, including major work on the exterior siding, roof, and flooring, as well as painting and touch-up. Addressing these issues will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant damage and wear visible.
• Major roof — Significant wear and potential leaks.
• Major flooring — Worn and possibly damaged, requiring replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — Needs touch-up or repainting for a fresh look.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting and touch-up — Fresh paint and touch-up will improve the home's appearance and curb appeal.
• Both roof repair — A repaired roof will prevent water damage and improve the home's value.
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring will enhance the home's aesthetic and functionality.
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both general maintenance — Addressing all maintenance items will ensure the home is move-in ready and in good condition.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant damage and wear visible.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Significant wear and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and possibly damaged, requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Needs touch-up or repainting for a fresh look.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting and touch-up — Fresh paint and touch-up will improve the home's appearance and curb appeal. ↑
• Both roof repair — A repaired roof will prevent water damage and improve the home's value. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring will enhance the home's aesthetic and functionality. ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both general maintenance — Addressing all maintenance items will ensure the home is move-in ready and in good condition. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Bear Lake, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 5,215
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,215
• Household income: $77,436
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -242.29%
• Current HPI: 310.1013
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $99,000 CRMLS