5475 Nottinghill Dr · Grayson Valley, AL 35235

$115,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 640 sqft · Townhouse public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1988 2,178 sqft lot $181/sqft · 71% above area Est $140k · 17% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity! Grayson Valley Townhome: 2bd, 1.5 bath. Spacious living room and dining area on the first floor, along with a half bath and laundry. Upstairs enjoy 2 spacious bedrooms with a full bath to share. Fenced backyard and driveway with 2 parking spaces.

Key facts

• Driveway
• Living room
• Dining area

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• DRIVEWAY
• LAUNDRY
• LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.5% in Grayson Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#139 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $801 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $116k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,946 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.09%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,602
• List price: $115,900
• Delta: -16.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,396
• Equity at exit: $17,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $21,295
• Equity at exit: $10,021

Cash invested: $32,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35235

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,179 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,324/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $970

Max offer price $115,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,975
• Closing costs: $3,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,900 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,900 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,900 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $115,900 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! Grayson Valley Townhome: 2bd, 1.5 bath. Spacious living room and dining area on the first floor, along with a half bath and laundry. Upstairs enjoy 2 spacious bedrooms with a full bath to share. Fenced backyard and driveway with 2 parking spaces.

15. 2026-03-18
    listed $118,000 Active 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! Grayson Valley Townhome: 2bd, 1.5 bath. Spacious living room and dining area on the first floor, along with a half bath and laundry. Upstairs enjoy 2 spacious bedrooms with a full bath to share. Fenced backyard and driveway with 2 parking spaces.

16. 2026-02-09
    listed $1,025
17. 2015-04-03
    soldstatus $58,000
18. 2015-03-30
    soldstatus $58,000 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY AND PRICED TO SELL! This is one you don't want to miss. .. This townhome has been well loved and it shows. The roof is only 3.5 years old. .. carpet is new. .. stove is new. This townhome has a formal dining area that could also serve as home office, family room, great kitchen with tile flooring and nice cabinets. Outback is a covered patio and fenced yard. Come See! It's convenient to everything. ..

19. 2015-01-08
    listed $69,900 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY AND PRICED TO SELL! This is one you don't want to miss. .. This townhome has been well loved and it shows. The roof is only 3.5 years old. .. carpet is new. .. stove is new. This townhome has a formal dining area that could also serve as home office, family room, great kitchen with tile flooring and nice cabinets. Outback is a covered patio and fenced yard. Come See! It's convenient to everything. ..

20. 2006-07-06
    soldstatus $89,600
21. 1988-04-18
    soldstatus $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,324 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,324 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,492
• − Property taxes: −$1,324
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,131
• − Management: −$1,131
• − Depreciation: −$3,372
• Taxable income: $113
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27
• After-tax cash flow: $1,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Grayson Valley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #13418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety B- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grayson Valley, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 20,526
• Household income: $63,295
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 941.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 30% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.62%
• Current HPI: 204.6532
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.39%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+158.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $115,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $118,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed for Rent $1,025 RENTLY
• 2015-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-30 Sold (MLS) $58,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2015-01-08 Listed $69,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2006-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $89,600 Public Records
• 1988-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $44,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,324 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.