301 Kingwood Ave · Shelbyville, TN 37160

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 965 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1945 10,454 sqft lot $192/sqft · 17% below area Est $222k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 BR/1BA (3rd room in the back can be used as 3rd bedroom), corner lot home with new roof, new vinyl siding, new carpet and new blinds. Great for for first time homebuyer or investment property. In the heart of Shelbyville close to the HV Griffin Park (with tennis court, basketball court, in-door and out-door swimming pools, event center rooms for rent, weight and exercise rooms and much more to make you feel a part of this wonderful community), close to Walmart, Lowe's, shopping centers, and restaurants.

Key facts

• Corner lot home
• New carpet
• New vinyl siding

Tags

• CORNER LOT HOME
• NEW ROOF
• NEW VINYL SIDING
• NEW CARPET
• NEW BLINDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-632/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, employment D.
• Bedford County (rural): math 24% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #97 of 139 in TN (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 630 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bedford County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,110 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,010
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -16.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 Kingwood Ave	0.07mi	2/1.0	978 (+1%)	18mo	$229,000	$234	79
117 Kingwood Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,024 (+6%)	10mo	$225,000	$220	74
1607 Edmond Rd	0.26mi	2/1.0	962 (-0%)	24mo	$235,000	$244	68
114 Collier Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,101 (+14%)	0mo	$239,900	$218	65
112 Kingwood Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	850 (-12%)	14mo	$215,000	$253	63
127 Scottland Hts	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	918 (-5%)	24mo	$157,000	$171	61
213 Edgemont Dr	0.42mi	2/1.0	870 (-10%)	4mo	$193,600	$223	60
912 Smith St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (-8%)	16mo	$220,500	$248	52
17031/2 Gordon Rd	0.36mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,108 (+15%)	0mo	$227,000	$205	51
701 Greenwood Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,075 (+11%)	23mo	$230,000	$214	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-33,416
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-33,752
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37160

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,341 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $779/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,408

Max offer price $175,692

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $52	-5% $0	+0% $-53	+5% $-105	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-106	+0% $-53	+5% $0	+10% $53
Rate	-1.0pp $40	-0.5pp $-6	base $-53	+0.5pp $-101	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Sunlite Rd Shelbyville, TN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1147	$990	$0.86	24d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $185,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-03-25
   price $185,000 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   2 BR/1BA (3rd room in the back can be used as 3rd bedroom), corner lot home with new roof, new vinyl siding, new carpet and new blinds. Great for for first time homebuyer or investment property. In the heart of Shelbyville close to the HV Griffin Park (with tennis court, basketball court, in-door and out-door swimming pools, event center rooms for rent, weight and exercise rooms and much more to make you feel a part of this wonderful community), close to Walmart, Lowe's, shopping centers, and restaurants.

5. 2026-02-26
   price $189,000 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   2 BR/1BA (3rd room in the back can be used as 3rd bedroom), corner lot home with new roof, new vinyl siding, new carpet and new blinds. Great for for first time homebuyer or investment property. In the heart of Shelbyville close to the HV Griffin Park (with tennis court, basketball court, in-door and out-door swimming pools, event center rooms for rent, weight and exercise rooms and much more to make you feel a part of this wonderful community), close to Walmart, Lowe's, shopping centers, and restaurants.

6. 2026-01-29
   listed $199,000 Active 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   2 BR/1BA (3rd room in the back can be used as 3rd bedroom), corner lot home with new roof, new vinyl siding, new carpet and new blinds. Great for for first time homebuyer or investment property. In the heart of Shelbyville close to the HV Griffin Park (with tennis court, basketball court, in-door and out-door swimming pools, event center rooms for rent, weight and exercise rooms and much more to make you feel a part of this wonderful community), close to Walmart, Lowe's, shopping centers, and restaurants.

7. 2026-01-14
   listed $199,900 Active 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   2 BR/1BA (3rd room in the back can be used as 3rd bedroom), corner lot home with new roof, new vinyl siding, new carpet and new blinds. Great for for first time homebuyer or investment property. In the heart of Shelbyville close to the HV Griffin Park (with tennis court, basketball court, in-door and out-door swimming pools, event center rooms for rent, weight and exercise rooms and much more to make you feel a part of this wonderful community), close to Walmart, Lowe's, shopping centers, and restaurants.

8. 2024-10-08
   soldstatus $170,000
9. 2007-06-04
   soldstatus $54,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,314 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$534/yr (+$45/mo · 68.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$779
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,287
• − Management: −$1,287
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,930
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$943
• After-tax cash flow: $311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford County
• NCES district ID: 4700180
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,704
• Composite: 20.03/100
• National rank: #8658
• State rank: #97 of 139 in TN

Livability — Shelbyville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14818

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelbyville, TN
• County: Bedford County · 38,148 people
• City population: 38,148
• Metro: Shelbyville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 38,148
• Household income: $64,800
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,064 people
• By 2030: 52,954 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 56,534 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,482 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 65,597 · +28.5%
• By 2100: 68,030 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.0) · D 20.5% · R 78.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -58.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+52.8 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.18%
• Current HPI: 330.802
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Shelbyville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+239.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $185,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $189,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listed $199,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listed $199,900 FSBO.com
• 2024-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $779 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.