174 Elmwood Ave · Waterville, NY 13480

$173,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,574 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1900 0.27 ac lot $110/sqft · 22% below area Est $223k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the charm of this beautifully update village home featuring many recent improvements including roof, siding, windows, bath and more! Start your mornings with a cup of coffee on the inviting three season porch, the main level boasts a spacious living room, modern eat-in kitchen, updated bath, convenient laundry and a welcoming family room. Upstairs you'll find 2-3 bedrooms with flexible space perfect for a home office or den. The oversized garage offers plenty of parking space plus room for your workshop or hobbies and when the day is done unwind in the hot tub overlooking the beautiful backyard! Located within walking distance to all of the amenities the Village has to offer. Ai staging.

Key facts

• Updated bath
• Hot tub
• Three season porch

Tags

• THREE SEASON PORCH
• MODERN EAT-IN KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATH
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• HOT TUB
• BEAUTIFUL BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#248 in NY, #3,907 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Waterville Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #422 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Memorial Park Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 396 students, 51% FRL); Waterville Jr/Sr High School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 312 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $174k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $128,102 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.87%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,605
• List price: $173,900
• Delta: -21.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 E Bacon St	0.30mi	4/1.0	1,632 (+4%)	3mo	$147,000	$90	73
323 Stafford Ave	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,564 (-1%)	6mo	$120,000	$77	70
156 E Bacon St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,620 (+3%)	20mo	$159,000	$98	60
197 W Bacon St	0.54mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,473 (-6%)	16mo	$200,000	$136	43
143 Buell Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,392 (-12%)	11mo	$116,600	$84	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.76% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $22,635
• Equity at exit: $96,064

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $82,794
• Equity at exit: $163,776

Cash invested: $48,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13480

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,188/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,582

Max offer price $131,848

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-140	-5% $-189	+0% $-238	+5% $-287	+10% $-336
Rent	-10% $-339	-5% $-289	+0% $-238	+5% $-187	+10% $-137
Rate	-1.0pp $-150	-0.5pp $-194	base $-238	+0.5pp $-283	+1.0pp $-329

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,475
• Closing costs: $5,217
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $173,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $173,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $173,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $173,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $173,900 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   price $173,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $179,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $179,900 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Discover the charm of this beautifully update village home featuring many recent improvements including roof, siding, windows, bath and more! Start your mornings with a cup of coffee on the inviting three season porch, the main level boasts a spacious living room, modern eat-in kitchen, updated bath, convenient laundry and a welcoming family room. Upstairs you'll find 2-3 bedrooms with flexible space perfect for a home office or den. The oversized garage offers plenty of parking space plus room for your workshop or hobbies and when the day is done unwind in the hot tub overlooking the beautiful backyard! Located within walking distance to all of the amenities the Village has to offer. Ai staging.

19. 2026-04-15
    listed $184,900 Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Discover the charm of this beautifully update village home featuring many recent improvements including roof, siding, windows, bath and more! Start your mornings with a cup of coffee on the inviting three season porch, the main level boasts a spacious living room, modern eat-in kitchen, updated bath, convenient laundry and a welcoming family room. Upstairs you'll find 2-3 bedrooms with flexible space perfect for a home office or den. The oversized garage offers plenty of parking space plus room for your workshop or hobbies and when the day is done unwind in the hot tub overlooking the beautiful backyard! Located within walking distance to all of the amenities the Village has to offer. Ai staging.

20. 2026-04-15
    historical

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Discover the charm of this beautifully update village home featuring many recent improvements including roof, siding, windows, bath and more! Start your mornings with a cup of coffee on the inviting three season porch, the main level boasts a spacious living room, modern eat-in kitchen, updated bath, convenient laundry and a welcoming family room. Upstairs you'll find 2-3 bedrooms with flexible space perfect for a home office or den. The oversized garage offers plenty of parking space plus room for your workshop or hobbies and when the day is done unwind in the hot tub overlooking the beautiful backyard! Located within walking distance to all of the amenities the Village has to offer. Ai staging.

21. 2026-03-11
    price $189,000
22. 2026-01-28
    listed $194,500 Active
23. 2006-12-12
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,188 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,188 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,741
• − Property taxes: −$3,188
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,230
• − Management: −$1,230
• − Depreciation: −$5,059
• Taxable loss: −$5,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,427
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630160
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,873
• Composite: 41.09/100
• National rank: #3570
• State rank: #422 of 590 in NY

Livability — Waterville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #248
• US rank: #3907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waterville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,454

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.76%
• Current HPI: 298.8868
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+157.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $179,900 CNYIS
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $184,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $189,000 CNYIS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $194,500 CNYIS
• 2006-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,188 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.