9138 Lake Point Blvd · Indian Lake Estates, FL 33898

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 482 Days on market

Built 1978 5,227 sqft lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE REDUCED!! CHECK OUT THIS NICELY MAINTAINED HOME in this desirable 55+ waterfront community just east of Lake Wales. 2-bedrooms, 2-bathrooms, fully furnished, on a pond. This home has a metal roof, AC was replaced in 2020, plumbing re-piped in November 2023, new carpet and luxury vinyl was installed in 2024. There is a shed/laundry room. The windows were replaced recently. The property backs up to a small pond. If you want a peaceful place to retire to or to live in year-round, you need to see this home. There is an optional share program that you can purchase that allows you to use all of the amenities that this community offers. The regular HOA fee covers the roads maintenance. This

Key facts

• Shed laundry room
• Metal roof
• Luxury vinyl

Tags

• WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• METAL ROOF
• PLUMBING RE-PIPED
• NEW CARPET
• LUXURY VINYL
• SHED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: under 1/4 acre (approx. 0.12 acres); Living area approx. 960 sq ft; total building area approx. 1,104 sq ft
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $200 / $16.67 monthly) — fee includes private road; Association amenities: Clubhouse, Pool, Shuffleboard court, Storage; Senior community; Pets allowed; Golf carts allowed; Street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Pond frontage with fishing pier and skiing allowed; Lake access and pond views; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric, Heat Pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floor plan; Solid wood cabinets; Window treatments; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spook Hill Elementary School (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 584 students, 67% FRL); Mclaughlin Academy of Excellence (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 542 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 501 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 482 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $125k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 482 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.64%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,314
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $21,166
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,802/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,106

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $317	+0% $281	+5% $246	+10% $210
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $224	+0% $281	+5% $339	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $313	base $281	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 482 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 479 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 478 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 477 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 476 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 474 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 471 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 470 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 469 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 468 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 465 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 463 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 462 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 461 DOM
15. 2025-11-07
    status Active
16. 2025-11-06
    historical
17. 2025-09-29
    listed $125,000 Active
18. 2025-09-18
    historical
19. 2025-02-19
    price $125,000
20. 2025-01-05
    listed $130,000 Active
21. 1993-02-16
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,802 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,802 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,802
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,404
• − Management: −$1,404
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,480
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$355
• After-tax cash flow: $3,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian Lake Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-05 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,802 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.