6542 Monument Hl · Manvel, TX 77578

$323,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,938 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,300 sqft lot 2-car garage $111/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 67686234 - Built By Imaingation Homes - Ready Now! ~ Beautiful single-story Ballad floorplan located in the highly desirable Meridiana master-planned community. This well-designed home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a flexible open-concept layout ideal for modern living. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and family room, creating a bright and inviting space perfect for entertaining. Features include a spacious island, ample cabinetry, and a walk-in pantry overlooking the main living area. The private primary suite is situated at the rear of the home and includes a generous bedroom, large walk-in closet, and en-suite bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Covered patio
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $323,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $374,134.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $323k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-857 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.5% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1437 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,362 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.41%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,134
• List price: $323,000
• Delta: -13.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6522 Monument Hl	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,938 (0%)	1mo	$318,000	$164	97
6531 Monument Hl	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,962 (+1%)	0mo	$330,000	$168	96
8014 Big Bend Trl	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,962 (+1%)	0mo	$327,000	$167	92
6503 Monument Hill Ct	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,962 (+1%)	1mo	$333,000	$170	92
6519 Monument Hl	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,167 (+12%)	0mo	$335,000	$155	77
6506 Monument Hill Ct	0.08mi	4/2.0	2,135 (+10%)	2mo	$342,000	$160	77
5703 Alleluia Trail Trl	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,057 (+6%)	9mo	$475,000	$231	42
7107 Water Glen Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,205 (+14%)	16mo	$380,000	$172	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-115,588
• Equity at exit: $55,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-172,526
• Equity at exit: $32,348

Cash invested: $104,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.6 mo (28%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,000 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 20 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77578

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1437
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,962
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$468 /mo · $5,612/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$111
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-857

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,568

Max offer price $250,155

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-598	-5% $-728	+0% $-857	+5% $-986	+10% $-1,115
Rent	-10% $-1,053	-5% $-955	+0% $-857	+5% $-759	+10% $-661
Rate	-1.0pp $-668	-0.5pp $-762	base $-857	+0.5pp $-954	+1.0pp $-1,052

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,533
• Closing costs: $11,224
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: New construction by Imagination Homes
• HOA & community: Meridiana Community Association with an annual feeCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Faces northeastSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and wood siding constructionComposition roofBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckFully fenced backyardSubdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenMicrowaveQuartz counters
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms
• Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Quartz countersConvection ovenMicrowave

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $323,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $323,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $323,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $323,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $323,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $323,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $323,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $323,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $323,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $323,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $323,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $323,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $323,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $323,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $323,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $323,000 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $323,000 Active 77 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $323,000 Active 76 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $323,000 Active 75 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $323,000 Active 74 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $323,000 Active 73 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $323,000 Active 72 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $323,000 Active 71 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $323,000 Active 70 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $323,000 Active 68 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $323,000 Active 67 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $323,000 Active 66 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $323,000 Active 65 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $323,000 Active 64 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $323,000 Active 63 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $323,000 Active 62 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $323,000 Active 61 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    price $323,000 Active 60 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $324,000 Active 60 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $324,000 Active 59 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $324,000 Active 58 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $324,000 Active 57 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $324,000 Active 55 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $324,000 Active 53 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $324,000 Active 52 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $324,000 Active 49 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $324,000 Active 48 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $324,000 Active 47 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $324,000 Active 46 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $324,000 Active 44 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $324,000 Active 43 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $324,000 Active 40 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $324,000 Active 39 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,000 Active 38 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $324,000 Active 35 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,957
• − Property taxes: −$5,612
• − Insurance: −$3,338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,384
• − Management: −$2,384
• − HOA: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$10,884
• Taxable loss: −$17,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,101
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,690–$29,070 screening

This single-story home by Imagination Homes is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's value and appeal to a broader market. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

High Iowa Colony H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,210
• Household income: $134,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Norwegian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
• Current HPI: 218.4264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: New construction by Imagination Homes
• HOA & community: Meridiana Community Association with an annual feeCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Faces northeastSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and wood siding constructionComposition roofBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckFully fenced backyardSubdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenMicrowaveQuartz counters
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms
• Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Quartz countersConvection ovenMicrowave

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $324,000 HARMLS