39 Shepard Ave · Saranac Lake, NY 12983

$349,900

None bd · None ba · 2,730 sqft · MultiFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 1920 Good condition $128/sqft · 26% below area Est $470k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

3 unit building with tenants in place. Owner provides heat, tenants pay electricity. Each unit has its own washer/dryer. Shed in back for storage. Walking distance to Lake Flower. Excellent condition including new Buderus furnace.

Key facts

• Exterior painted
• New roof
• 5 parking spots

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING TRIPLEX
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• WELL MAINTAINED PROPERTY
• THOUGHTFULLY RENOVATED UNITS
• NEW ROOF
• EXTERIOR PAINTED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking available for 5 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer and water connected
• Home design: Residential income property (Triplex)
• Construction: Multi-family triplex structure
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil-fired heating
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Basement apartment with walk-out access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the building in multiple locations

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2×2bd/1ba + 1×3bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive. Per door: $428/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $339k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.5% in Saranac Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#274 in NY, #4,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Saranac Lake Central School District (town): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #497 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $146k; list at $350k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $339,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.72%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $470,108
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -25.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Margaret St	0.58mi	—/—	2,673 (-2%)	2mo	$499,950	$187	68
92 Broadway	0.48mi	—/—	2,615 (-4%)	20mo	$185,000	$71	54
20 Sumner Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0	3,089 (+13%)	10mo	$114,500	$37	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $25,091
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $127,363
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12983

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 19.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,685 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,248/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$984
• Net cashflow: $1,283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,061

Max offer price $349,900

Occupancy floor 68%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,030
1× unit	3	1	$1,656
Total (3 units)			$4,685

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $349,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,900 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $349,900 Active 1734-char remark
16. 2025-10-29
    price $379,900
17. 2017-11-08
    soldstatus $146,280

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    3 unit building with tenants in place. Owner provides heat, tenants pay electricity. Each unit has its own washer/dryer. Shed in back for storage. Walking distance to Lake Flower. Excellent condition including new Buderus furnace.

18. 2017-08-24
    listed $149,000

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    3 unit building with tenants in place. Owner provides heat, tenants pay electricity. Each unit has its own washer/dryer. Shed in back for storage. Walking distance to Lake Flower. Excellent condition including new Buderus furnace.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$5,248
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,498
• − Management: −$4,498
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable income: $10,448
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,508
• After-tax cash flow: $12,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

A well-maintained triplex with good curb appeal and potential for further value through exterior updates and kitchen modernization.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace the roof — Long-term durability and increased value
• Resale Update the kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace the roof — Long-term durability and increased value ↑
• Resale Update the kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saranac Lake Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625740
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,434
• Composite: 35.73/100
• National rank: #4856
• State rank: #497 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saranac Lake

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #274
• US rank: #4341

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saranac Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,410

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.20%
• Current HPI: 318.7218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+134.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $349,900 ACVMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $379,900 ACVMLS
• 2017-11-08 Sold (MLS) $146,280 ACVMLS
• 2017-08-24 Listed $149,000 ACVMLS