Traverse Plan · Florence, AZ 85132

$279,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,283 sqft · SingleFamily · 182 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sun City Anthem Traverse floor plan is a new home design perfect for hosting, with an open kitchen and covered patio for easy entertaining.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Open kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $357,993.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-308 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Florence — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.69%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,993
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -21.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6756 W Patriot Way	0.08mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (+0%)	11mo	$299,900	$233	81
3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,381 (+8%)	7mo	$290,790	$211	76
3905 N Hidden Canyon Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,251 (-2%)	19mo	$297,500	$238	74
6466 W Heritage Way	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,381 (+8%)	2mo	$304,000	$220	74
6569 W Yorktown Ct	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,381 (+8%)	15mo	$312,500	$226	62
6364 W Meadowlark Way	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,421 (+11%)	2mo	$310,000	$218	57
6748 W Mockingbird Way	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,381 (+8%)	13mo	$332,500	$241	53
7382 W Silver Spring Way	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,475 (+15%)	3mo	$350,000	$237	50
6648 W Mockingbird Way	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,405 (+10%)	19mo	$344,700	$245	47
6658 W Mockingbird Way	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,106 (-14%)	11mo	$315,000	$285	46
6709 W Mockingbird Way	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,420 (+11%)	18mo	$340,000	$239	46
6621 W Mockingbird Way	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,090 (-15%)	15mo	$285,000	$261	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-82,278
• Equity at exit: $53,378

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-115,333
• Equity at exit: $30,953

Cash invested: $100,238 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,877
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$447 /mo · $5,370/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,132

Max offer price $313,424

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,498
• Closing costs: $10,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	43d	1	0.15mi
3658 N Princeton Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	43d	1	0.16mi
6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	43d	1	0.37mi
6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	43d	1	0.43mi
4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.54mi
2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,200	$1.25	43d	1	0.56mi
4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1586	$3,500	$2.21	43d	1	0.68mi
7347 W Millerton Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,695	$1.17	43d	1	1.03mi
2313 N Presidential Dr Unit 1545866P Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,578	$1.46	15d	1	1.11mi
7635 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	43d	1	1.17mi
8555 W Georgetown Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,800	$1.78	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 164 DOM
15. 2025-12-19
    listed $279,990 Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    The Sun City Anthem Traverse floor plan is a new home design perfect for hosting, with an open kitchen and covered patio for easy entertaining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,053
• − Property taxes: −$5,370
• − Insurance: −$1,790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,632
• − Management: −$2,632
• − Depreciation: −$10,414
• Taxable loss: −$9,990
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor aesthetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Listed $279,990 Zillow