5619 Bayshore Rd #312 · Memphis, FL 34221

$119,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 243 Days on market

Built 1975 3,550 sqft lot Est $132k · 10% under $250/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Terra Ceia Manor, a quaint 55+ manufactured home community located in Palmetto, Florida. This location is convenient to both Bradenton and the St Pete area, just a few minutes drive from the Sunshine Skyway! This 2 bedroom / 2 bathroom home has a wonderful location in the community, right across from the clubhouse and all the amenities! BRAND NEW HVAC INSTALLED APRIL 2026! Step in to the front door to an additional seating area. This will lead you into the main living space, with the living room, dining room, and kitchen. The rear of the home has the 2nd bedroom, and 2nd full bathroom. The master suite features an ensuite bathroom. In addition to the carport, there is a screen ro

Key facts

• Screen room
• Community pool
• Convenient location

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME COMMUNITY
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• ACROSS FROM CLUBHOUSE
• ADDITIONAL SEATING AREA
• SCREEN ROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Enter the community, bear right; home will be on your right
• Financial info: Total annual fees $3,000 (monthly $250); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $250) — includes pool and water; Association approval required; Buyer approval required; Clubhouse; Community mailbox; Golf carts allowed; Pool; Sidewalks; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions and limits

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home, double wide; One story; Faces south; Entry level: One
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof type; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.35%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,160
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5619 Bayshore Rd #142	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	2mo	$125,000	$118	80
5619 Bayshore Rd #164	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,224 (+9%)	2mo	$120,000	$98	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $9,354
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $30,599
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,167/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,296

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $607	-5% $573	+0% $540	+5% $506	+10% $472
Rent	-10% $383	-5% $461	+0% $540	+5% $618	+10% $696
Rate	-1.0pp $600	-0.5pp $570	base $540	+0.5pp $509	+1.0pp $477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4721 1st Ave E #4721 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,000	$1.37	24d	1	0.74mi
515 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	24d	1	0.86mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	0.92mi
9940 Mahaffey DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$1,700	$1.54	24d	1	1.41mi
6045 Bird Key Pl Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,005	$2.03	3d	220	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 243 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $119,500 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 240 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 238 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,500 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,500 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,500 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,500 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 227 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 225 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    price $129,500
17. 2026-04-01
    status Active
18. 2026-03-28
    historical
19. 2025-10-14
    listed $149,500 Active
20. 2025-04-28
    historical
21. 2025-03-14
    listed $148,000 Active
22. 2025-02-20
    historical
23. 2025-02-18
    status Active
24. 2025-02-12
    historical
25. 2024-08-22
    price $148,000
26. 2024-05-06
    status Active
27. 2024-05-03
    price $149,500
28. 2023-12-14
    listed $150,000 Active
29. 2023-09-07
    historical
30. 2023-07-11
    price $180,000
31. 2023-06-13
    listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,167 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,167 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$1,167
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $5,012
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,203
• After-tax cash flow: $5,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-31.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $129,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Listed $149,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Listed $148,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $148,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $149,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-14 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-11 Price Changed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-13 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,167 · -6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.