5520 Horizon Dr #3 · Humboldt Hill, CA 95503

$89,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled along the edge of one of the area's most desirable manufactured home parks, this charming home offers a rare combination of privacy, comfort, and beautiful bay views. Its premium location provides an extra-long stretch of nearby guest parking, plus an extra-long driveway for added convenience. Inside, you'll find a warm and inviting layout featuring beautiful Berber carpet, spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets, and a relaxing primary suite with lovely bay views to wake up to each morning. Step outside to enjoy even more bay views from the sweet, fully fenced backyard, complete with a grassy lawn, garden area, and cozy patio perfect for entertaining or quiet evenings outdoors. The

Key facts

• Guest parking
• Garden area
• Driveway

Tags

• BAY VIEWS
• GUEST PARKING
• DRIVEWAY
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• GRASSY LAWN
• GARDEN AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Natural gas connected / available
• Home design: Residential single-family residence; Single-story mobile home (Newport model)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Other roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Partial fencing; Level lot; Asphalt/paved road access; Located in a mobile home park (Humboldt Bay Estates)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $627 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 2.7% in Humboldt Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#423 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,299 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.83%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $25,343
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $73,547
• Equity at exit: $7,781

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95503

• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,580 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,999 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,999 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,999 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,999 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,999 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,999 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,999 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,999 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,999 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,999 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,999 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,999 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,999 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $89,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥75°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $6,470
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,553
• After-tax cash flow: $5,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Humboldt Hill

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #14428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Humboldt Hill, CA
• County: Humboldt County · 88,652 people
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,054
• Household income: $71,855
• Rent vs Own: 30.5% rent · 69.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.60%
• Current HPI: 235.5679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $89,999 HAR