13448 Noble Garnet Ln · Ruskin, FL 34219

$226,490

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,747 sqft · Townhouse · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $130/sqft · 13% below area Est $261k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story townhome has a great layout with a first floor dedicated to shared living and entertaining. Showcasing an open layout shared by the kitchen with island, dining room and family room, a covered porch opens it even more to the outdoors. Upstairs are all three bedrooms, including the owner's suite with a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Walk-in closet
• Open layout

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LAYOUT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PORCH
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $226k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $226k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.2% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2991 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $226,490

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.81%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,303
• List price: $226,490
• Delta: -13.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13445 Noble Garnet Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,747 (0%)	3mo	$231,995	$133	97
12680 Peaceful Peridot Way	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,747 (0%)	4mo	$238,000	$136	91
12676 Peaceful Peridot Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,714 (-2%)	6mo	$235,000	$137	89
12628 Peaceful Peridot Way Unit na	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,747 (0%)	11mo	$241,500	$138	84
13526 Noble Garnet Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,993 (+14%)	1mo	$248,740	$125	76
13204 Stable Pl	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,704 (-2%)	10mo	$299,999	$176	64
13575 White Gold Run	0.15mi	3/2.5	2,002 (+15%)	10mo	$253,250	$126	60
13134 Stable Pl	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,558 (-11%)	0mo	$284,999	$183	59
13224 Stable Pl	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,558 (-11%)	2mo	$279,999	$180	57
13223 Stable Pl	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,558 (-11%)	3mo	$274,999	$177	56
13154 Stable Pl	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,558 (-11%)	6mo	$289,999	$186	54
13228 Stable Pl	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,558 (-11%)	5mo	$299,000	$192	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,367
• Equity at exit: $33,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,914
• Equity at exit: $19,583

Cash invested: $63,417 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 43 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.4 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $245,240 ($124/sqft)
• Median days on market: 17 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2991
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,638 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,188
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$283 /mo · $3,397/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,981

Max offer price $226,490

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $675	-5% $597	+0% $519	+5% $440	+10% $362
Rent	-10% $310	-5% $414	+0% $519	+5% $623	+10% $727
Rate	-1.0pp $633	-0.5pp $576	base $519	+0.5pp $460	+1.0pp $400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,622
• Closing costs: $6,795
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13441 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	1747	$2,295	$1.31	80d	1	0.03mi
13416 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1993	$2,395	$1.20	74d	1	0.03mi
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,095	$1.19	66d	1	0.03mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,600	$1.20	79d	1	0.08mi
13524 Camelot Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1853	$2,350	$1.27	3d	1	0.39mi
13207 Forge Ave Parrish, FL	2.0	2.5	1205	$2,000	$1.66	10d	1	0.45mi
13159 Stable Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,100	$1.50	1d	1	0.48mi
12456 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	94d	1	1.33mi
12415 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,700	$1.32	5d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $226,490 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $226,490 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $226,490 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   remarks 353-char remark
5. 2026-06-08
   listed $225,490 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,687
• − Property taxes: −$3,397
• − Insurance: −$1,132
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,532
• − Management: −$2,532
• − Depreciation: −$6,589
• Taxable income: $2,782
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$668
• After-tax cash flow: $5,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story townhome is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and updated flooring in the bathrooms to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing old or worn-out flooring with modern options can improve the overall look and feel of the bathrooms, making the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virgil Mills Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B