196 Quail Creek Dr · Roxboro, NC 27574

$227,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2008 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to peaceful country living! Nestled on a spacious 1-acre lot, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home offers the perfect combination of comfort, privacy, and affordability. Step inside to find a bright and inviting floor plan with ample living space for relaxing and entertaining. The spacious living room flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, creating a warm and functional gathering space for family and friends. The primary suite features a private bathroom and plenty of closet space, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing families. Outside, you'll enjoy the freedom and possibilities that come wit

Key facts

• Ample living space
• Spacious 1 acre lot
• Private bathroom

Tags

• SPACIOUS 1 ACRE LOT
• BRIGHT INVITING FLOOR PLAN
• AMPLE LIVING SPACE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• PLENTY OF CLOSET SPACE
• FULL ACRE OF LAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Water from well and spring; Septic tank and holding tank for sewer
• Home design: One level; Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: 1 acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate and vinyl flooring; No fireplace; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $786 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $228k).
• Recommended offer: $224k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.5% in Roxboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Person High (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,079 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,087 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.81%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $173,896
• Equity at exit: $204,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.42×
• Total profit: $472,606
• Equity at exit: $441,982

Cash invested: $63,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27574

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,193
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,360/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $227,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $915	-5% $850	+0% $786	+5% $722	+10% $657
Rent	-10% $567	-5% $677	+0% $786	+5% $895	+10% $1,005
Rate	-1.0pp $901	-0.5pp $844	base $786	+0.5pp $727	+1.0pp $667

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,875
• Closing costs: $6,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $227,500 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $227,500 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,500 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,500 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,500 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,500 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $227,500 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $229,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $229,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,866 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$506/yr (+$42/mo · 37.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,744
• − Property taxes: −$1,360
• − Insurance: −$1,138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,658
• − Management: −$2,658
• − Depreciation: −$6,618
• Taxable income: $6,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $7,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Person County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,729
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5242
• State rank: #110 of 178 in NC

Livability — Roxboro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #23536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,954
• Population (ZIP): 14,163

Population outlook (Person County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,577 people
• By 2030: 37,847 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,740 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 32,683 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 24,979 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 15,779 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Person

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.7) · D 37.7% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.7 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.68%
• Current HPI: 276.8767
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $229,000 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,360 · +26.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.