4800 Westlake Pkwy #704 · Sacramento, CA 95835

$307,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,125 sqft · Condo public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2005 $273/sqft · 15% below area Est $363k · 15% under $392/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your urban oasis in the heart of Natomas! This stunning 1-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome at Westlake Villas offers 1,125 sqft of bright, modern living across three thoughtfully designed levels. The main floor features a wide-open layout where the granite kitchen with oversized breakfast bar flows into the dining and living areas, all flooded with natural light. Step out to your private balcony and take in the surroundings. Upstairs, retreat to your spacious primary suite complete with an ensuite bath, alongside a versatile loft landing perfect for a home office, studio, or reading nook. Storage is never an issue with closets and built-in cabinetry throughout, plus in-unit washer and

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Access to clubhouse
• $392 HOA

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• OVERSIZED BREAKFAST BAR
• VERSATILE LOFT LANDING
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• ATTACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• ACCESS TO CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $307k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-942 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (54.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (32.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (54.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: H. Allen Hight Elementary (802 students, 59% FRL); Natomas Middle (662 students, 65% FRL); Inderkum High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 2,266 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,550 (54.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.41%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,055
• List price: $307,000
• Delta: -15.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $87,279
• Equity at exit: $258,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $294,992
• Equity at exit: $539,291

Cash invested: $85,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,084 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,610
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,004/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$392
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-942

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,277

Max offer price $140,550

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-768	-5% $-855	+0% $-942	+5% $-1,029	+10% $-1,116
Rent	-10% $-1,107	-5% $-1,025	+0% $-942	+5% $-860	+10% $-778
Rate	-1.0pp $-788	-0.5pp $-864	base $-942	+0.5pp $-1,022	+1.0pp $-1,103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,750
• Closing costs: $9,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4800 Westlake Pkwy #3008 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1304	$2,250	$1.73	45d	1	0.01mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1214	$1,950	$1.61	3d	3	0.07mi
4450 El Centro Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,735	$1.93	0d	11	0.37mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$2,024	$1.65	0d	24	1.02mi
3301 Arena Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	952	$1,875	$1.97	0d	1	1.07mi
4200 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,679	$2.07	6d	2	1.12mi
4200 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,555	$1.91	0d	3	1.12mi
4200 E Commerce Way #1012 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	958	$1,795	$1.87	45d	1	1.14mi
4190 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$2,050	$2.18	0d	20	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $392 · $4,704/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $307,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $307,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $307,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $307,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $307,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $307,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $307,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $307,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $307,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $307,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $307,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $307,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $307,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $307,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $307,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2023-08-09
    soldstatus $317,000
17. 2019-05-10
    soldstatus $228,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,004 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,004 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,197
• − Property taxes: −$4,004
• − Insurance: −$3,038
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,001
• − Management: −$2,001
• − HOA: −$4,704
• − Depreciation: −$8,931
• Taxable loss: −$16,865
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,048
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+38.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2023-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $317,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $228,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,004 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.