1959 Road 5714 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Built 2024 10,018 sqft lot $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bed / 2 Bath Mobile on 0.23AC lot built 2024

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 2024

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: Houston El Norte Property Owners; HOA fee $120 annually (includes recreation facilities); Community features include a community pool

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story design; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2024; Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Lot area approximately 0.23 acres (about 10,018 sq ft)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms — all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pine Burr El (691 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.34%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,897
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $46,794
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $804/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $516	-5% $474	+0% $432	+5% $389	+10% $347
Rent	-10% $296	-5% $364	+0% $432	+5% $499	+10% $567
Rate	-1.0pp $507	-0.5pp $470	base $432	+0.5pp $393	+1.0pp $353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1964 Road 5714 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	44d	1	0.08mi
1964 Road 5714 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,575	$1.40	7d	1	0.08mi
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	1d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 46-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $804 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,940/yr (+$162/mo · 241.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$804
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,885
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$692
• After-tax cash flow: $4,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8984.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Rental Removed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $804 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.