2115 Union Rd · West Seneca, NY 14224

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,205 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1850 4,875 sqft lot Est $181k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity! Needs work but some done/started. Located near 400 and 90. Minutes to downtown. West Seneca school district. Roof work in 2004/2005. Downstairs has wall furnace, hot water tank unknown, new kitchen floor, remodeled bath room, five windows installed. Insulated outer walls. Some electrical and drywall. Upstairs has floor furnace. Hot water tank 2015. Hardwood floors. Seller is open to offers!

Key facts

• Storage room
• Laundry room
• New gas stove

Tags

• NEW GAS STOVE
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• STORAGE ROOM
• NEW ELECTRIC SERVICES
• NEW PLUMBING SUPPLY LINES
• NEW LOWER ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive. Per door: $613/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 3.7% in West Seneca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#130 in NY, #2,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• West Seneca Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $165k implies a 346% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.88%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,810
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1916 Union Rd	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,433 (+10%)	3mo	$199,900	$82	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $51,526
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $145,969
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14224

• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,153 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,970/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $1,227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,600

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 56%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,152
Total (2 units)			$3,153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
644 Indian Church Rd Unit A West Seneca, NY	2.0	1.0	2000	$1,795	$0.90	2d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2025-12-01
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-17
   price $164,900
3. 2025-10-31
   price $169,900
4. 2025-10-10
   price $174,900
5. 2025-10-03
   listed $184,900 Active
6. 2016-06-06
   soldstatus $37,000 Closed Sale or Rented 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! Needs work but some done/started. Located near 400 and 90. Minutes to downtown. West Seneca school district. Roof work in 2004/2005. Downstairs has wall furnace, hot water tank unknown, new kitchen floor, remodeled bath room, five windows installed. Insulated outer walls. Some electrical and drywall. Upstairs has floor furnace. Hot water tank 2015. Hardwood floors. Seller is open to offers!

7. 2016-06-03
   soldstatus $37,000
8. 2016-04-21
   status Pending Sale 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! Needs work but some done/started. Located near 400 and 90. Minutes to downtown. West Seneca school district. Roof work in 2004/2005. Downstairs has wall furnace, hot water tank unknown, new kitchen floor, remodeled bath room, five windows installed. Insulated outer walls. Some electrical and drywall. Upstairs has floor furnace. Hot water tank 2015. Hardwood floors. Seller is open to offers!

9. 2016-01-22
   listed $45,000 Active 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! Needs work but some done/started. Located near 400 and 90. Minutes to downtown. West Seneca school district. Roof work in 2004/2005. Downstairs has wall furnace, hot water tank unknown, new kitchen floor, remodeled bath room, five windows installed. Insulated outer walls. Some electrical and drywall. Upstairs has floor furnace. Hot water tank 2015. Hardwood floors. Seller is open to offers!

10. 2015-10-20
    soldstatus $29,000
11. 2015-10-20
    soldstatus $29,000
12. 2015-10-19
    soldstatus $29,000 Closed Sale or Rented 72-char remark

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    2/1 double needs work. Cash buyers only. 2 car garage. House sold as is.

13. 2015-10-01
    status Pending Sale 72-char remark

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    2/1 double needs work. Cash buyers only. 2 car garage. House sold as is.

14. 2015-09-16
    listed $34,900 Active 72-char remark

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    2/1 double needs work. Cash buyers only. 2 car garage. House sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,970 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,970 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$3,970
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,027
• − Management: −$3,027
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $12,954
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,109
• After-tax cash flow: $11,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630780
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,231
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2735
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Seneca

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #2089

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Seneca, NY
• City population: 41,101
• Population (ZIP): 41,101

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 22% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.03%
• Current HPI: 303.7523
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+372.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $164,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $174,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $184,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-06-06 Sold (MLS) $37,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-01-22 Listed $45,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-19 Sold (MLS) $29,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-10-01 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2015-09-16 Listed $34,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+15.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,970 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.