521 E Main St · Mechanicstown, NY 10940

$449,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1900 7,600 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Cash cow, 2 family in fair condition with great rental, tenants pay all utilities, property is zoned highway commercial, 1/2 miles from new hospital being built, deeded rights to 50 ft. right of way next to property, great for investor.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Separate decks
• Commercial zoning

Tags

• COMMERCIAL ZONING
• HIGH VISIBILITY LOCATION
• UPDATED APARTMENTS
• SEPARATE DECKS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric service by Orange & Rockland; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Duplex; Property in actual condition
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen(s)
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Basement with Bilco doors
• Laundry & utility: Natural gas connected; Electricity connected

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $127/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $420k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $420k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.1% in Mechanicstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#375 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: William A Carter School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,923 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 777 students, 76% FRL); Middletown Twin Towers Middle School (math 10% / reading 42%, grade F, #595 of 729 statewide, top 82%, 858 students, 78% FRL); Middletown High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 2,523 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,204/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 1846% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $121k; list at $450k implies a 272% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $420,400 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-34,423
• Equity at exit: $67,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $92,189
• Equity at exit: $38,899

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 17.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax from tax record: −$520 /mo · $6,235/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$883
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,882

Max offer price $449,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $509	-5% $382	+0% $255	+5% $127	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $89	+0% $255	+5% $421	+10% $587
Rate	-1.0pp $481	-0.5pp $369	base $255	+0.5pp $138	+1.0pp $20

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,204
Total (2 units)			$4,204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Silo Ln Middletown, NY	3.0	1.5	1452	$2,500	$1.72	44d	1	0.20mi
169 Excelsior Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	1.5	1450	$2,800	$1.93	14d	1	1.09mi
132 Prospect Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1240	$2,300	$1.85	44d	1	1.20mi
63 Broad St Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1088	$2,700	$2.48	24d	1	1.27mi
1 Dewitt St Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1127	$2,100	$1.86	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   price $449,900
3. 2026-03-02
   listed $499,900 Active
4. 2009-02-19
   soldstatus $121,000
5. 2009-01-30
   soldstatus $121,000 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Cash cow, 2 family in fair condition with great rental, tenants pay all utilities, property is zoned highway commercial, 1/2 miles from new hospital being built, deeded rights to 50 ft. right of way next to property, great for investor.

6. 2009-01-02
   price $150,000 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Cash cow, 2 family in fair condition with great rental, tenants pay all utilities, property is zoned highway commercial, 1/2 miles from new hospital being built, deeded rights to 50 ft. right of way next to property, great for investor.

7. 2009-01-02
   historical 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Cash cow, 2 family in fair condition with great rental, tenants pay all utilities, property is zoned highway commercial, 1/2 miles from new hospital being built, deeded rights to 50 ft. right of way next to property, great for investor.

8. 2008-10-31
   listed $121,000 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Cash cow, 2 family in fair condition with great rental, tenants pay all utilities, property is zoned highway commercial, 1/2 miles from new hospital being built, deeded rights to 50 ft. right of way next to property, great for investor.

9. 1979-10-01
   soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,235 · $520/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,919 · $577/mo
• Expected delta: +$684/yr (+$57/mo · 11.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$6,235
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,036
• − Management: −$4,036
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable loss: −$4,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,056
• After-tax cash flow: $4,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mechanicstown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #6457

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mechanicstown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+4399.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $449,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $499,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $121,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-30 Sold (MLS) $121,000 HGMLS
• 2009-01-02 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2009-01-02 Price Changed $150,000 HGMLS
• 2008-10-31 Listed $121,000 HGMLS
• 1979-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,235 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.