706 Elm St · Carthage, NY 13619

$49,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1880 3,822 sqft lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Good sized home on a quiet street in a country village. The property needs work for sure, but the potential is there. With 4 bedooms and a bath and a half much can be done. Lots of hardwood floors on both the first and second floors. A full basement, and a good sized one car garage add extra storage space.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Country village
• Extra storage space

Tags

• QUIET STREET
• COUNTRY VILLAGE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FULL BASEMENT
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $750 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Cap rate 24.6% vs local median 5.5% in Carthage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#506 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.56%
• DSCR: 3.92
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
622 Fulton St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,244 (-0%)	1mo	$190,000	$153	92
622 Alexandria St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,356 (+9%)	0mo	$175,000	$129	74
316 N Clinton St	0.11mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (-8%)	7mo	$56,000	$49	71
313 S Washington St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-5%)	10mo	$175,000	$147	70
620 West St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+8%)	11mo	$187,500	$140	69
642 W End Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,240 (-1%)	11mo	$55,000	$44	67
664 W End Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-4%)	11mo	$27,000	$23	60
427 S James St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,325 (+6%)	11mo	$141,300	$107	57
228 Church St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+12%)	6mo	$159,900	$114	56
934 Alexandria St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+11%)	4mo	$209,500	$151	54
321 S Washington St	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,404 (+12%)	11mo	$219,000	$156	53
51 Champion St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+12%)	0mo	$215,000	$154	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $74,447
• Equity at exit: $44,143

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.1%
• Equity multiple: 14.25×
• Total profit: $181,734
• Equity at exit: $95,196

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13619

• Home prices YoY: 26.0%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $750

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $783	-5% $766	+0% $750	+5% $733	+10% $716
Rent	-10% $641	-5% $695	+0% $750	+5% $804	+10% $858
Rate	-1.0pp $774	-0.5pp $762	base $750	+0.5pp $737	+1.0pp $724

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
719 Alexandria St Unit 719 Carthage, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	44d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-28
   listed $49,000 Active
3. 2005-01-05
   soldstatus $73,500
4. 2003-03-10
   soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,322
• − Management: −$1,322
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $8,734
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,096
• After-tax cash flow: $6,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #8895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carthage, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 10,578
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,578
• Household income: $63,120
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 379.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.02%
• Current HPI: 406.9439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $49,000 CNYIS
• 2005-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 2003-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,972 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.