140 Darby Dr · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$286,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 424 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $228/sqft · 45% below area Est $520k · 45% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Beckman - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. Estimated COE August 2025. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purpose.

Key facts

• Lovely dining area
• Private corner
• Adjoining bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• MULTI-FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• LOVELY DINING AREA
• PRIVATE CORNER
• ADJOINING BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.6% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fredericksburg El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 744 students, 67% FRL); Fredericksburg Middle (math 51% / reading 46%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 684 students, 58% FRL); Fredericksburg H S (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,003 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1069 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 67d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 424 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $228,946 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 424 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.04%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $519,950
• List price: $286,999
• Delta: -44.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 E Travis St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+5%)	9mo	$779,000	$590	65
304 W Live Oak St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,270 (+1%)	1mo	$328,000	$258	62
704 W San Antonio St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-1%)	6mo	$495,000	$397	61
209 E Travis St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-14%)	4mo	$599,000	$551	55
328 W Morse St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+14%)	1mo	$699,000	$489	48
805 N Edison	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,144 (-9%)	4mo	$319,500	$279	46
301 E Hackberry St	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-3%)	16mo	$498,000	$407	43
808 N Crockett St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-9%)	6mo	$395,000	$343	42
807 N Orange St	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+11%)	12mo	$849,900	$607	39
406 E Centre St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+15%)	14mo	$639,000	$442	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-59,428
• Equity at exit: $42,792

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-68,243
• Equity at exit: $24,814

Cash invested: $80,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 44 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 52.8 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $577,500 ($447/sqft)
• Median days on market: 141 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -7.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 1069
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$359 /mo · $4,305/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,547

Max offer price $257,522

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-105	+0% $-204	+5% $-303	+10% $-402
Rent	-10% $-385	-5% $-294	+0% $-204	+5% $-113	+10% $-23
Rate	-1.0pp $-59	-0.5pp $-131	base $-204	+0.5pp $-278	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,750
• Closing costs: $8,610
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 E Ufer St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,355	$2.37	9d	10	0.38mi
422 S Orange St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	1.0	1732	$2,050	$1.18	24d	1	0.44mi
509 W Creek St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1576	$1,750	$1.11	73d	1	0.52mi
104 N Elk St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,000	$1.23	60d	1	0.63mi
104 N Elk St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,000	$1.23	33d	1	0.63mi
505 Mooney Ln Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$2,450	$1.41	42d	1	0.82mi
1004 E Hill St Unit B Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	73d	1	0.86mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	46d	1	0.87mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,895	$1.32	73d	1	0.87mi
619 W Live Oak St Fredericksburg, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	829	$1,999	$2.41	9d	14	0.98mi
1401 N Orange St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1222	$1,700	$1.39	93d	1	1.06mi
405 Summit Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	93d	1	1.07mi
1407 N Crockett St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	953	$1,175	$1.23	10d	1	1.09mi
501 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,500	$1.79	93d	1	1.17mi
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,950	$2.21	93d	1	1.19mi
108 E Lower Crabapple Rd Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,097	$2.23	10d	14	1.25mi
605 Paintbrush Hollow St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,495	$1.55	73d	1	1.26mi
915 E Highway St Unit NA Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,950	$1.39	53d	1	1.34mi
1006 E Highway St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,250	$1.42	93d	1	1.39mi
712 Englemann Oak Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,650	$1.75	67d	1	1.39mi
713 Englemann Oak Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,850	$1.91	93d	1	1.42mi
1705 Cherrywood Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,500	$1.40	60d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $286,999 Active 424 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $286,999 Active 422 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $286,999 Active 421 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $286,999 Active 420 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $286,999 Active 419 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $286,999 Active 416 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $286,999 Active 414 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $286,999 Active 413 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $286,999 Active 411 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $286,999 Active 409 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $286,999 Active 408 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $286,999 Active 407 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $286,999 Active 406 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $286,999 Active 405 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $286,999 Active 403 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $286,999 Active 402 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $286,999 Active 401 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $286,999 Active 400 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $286,999 Active 399 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $286,999 Active 398 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $286,999 Active 397 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $286,999 Active 396 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $286,999 Active 395 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $286,999 Active 394 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $286,999 Active 392 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $286,999 Active 391 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $286,999 Active 390 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $286,999 Active 388 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $286,999 Active 387 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $286,999 Active 386 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $286,999 Active 385 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $286,999 Active 384 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $286,999 Active 383 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $286,999 Active 382 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $286,999 Active 381 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $286,999 Active 379 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $286,999 Active 377 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $286,999 Active 376 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $286,999 Active 373 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $286,999 Active 372 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $286,999 Active 371 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $286,999 Active 370 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $286,999 Active 368 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $286,999 Active 364 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $286,999 Active 363 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $286,999 Active 362 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $286,999 Active 359 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $286,999 Active 358 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $286,999 Active 357 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $286,999 Active 356 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,076
• − Property taxes: −$4,305
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,198
• − Management: −$2,198
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,349
• Taxable loss: −$7,436
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,785
• After-tax cash flow: $-660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,300–$18,900 screening

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would be a great investment for both resale and rental purposes.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Replace window blinds — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stonewall El B TX #257/4,322 Nat'l #5,189/41,679 Middle Fredericksburg Middle C- TX #392/1,662 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High Fredericksburg H S D- TX #643/1,632 Nat'l #6,809/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 28,213 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-10 Listed $286,999 LERA